Diplomatic sources say US-Iran negotiations and exchanges of messages have continued since the Iranian delegation returned from New York, Al-Akhbar reports.

Back-channel US-Iran contacts mediated by Qatar have been a recurring feature of this conflict, and episodes of this kind have historically followed a recognisable sequence: a period of quiet message exchanges, then either a de-escalatory announcement or a breakdown that re-escalates through proxies or direct strikes. The channel that matters for crude is the risk premium in prompt Brent and WTI rather than physical supply, since only a negotiated outcome involving sanctions relief changes actual export volumes, while breakdown headlines tend to flow through freight, insurance and front-month timespreads. Diplomatic-source reporting carried by regional outlets in past negotiations has been deliberately timed and partial, so the provenance and timing of the leak is itself part of the signal. Language describing a decisive stage functions as a catalyst window rather than information, and the historical pattern is that such windows resolve with a discrete headline rather than gradual drift. The follow-ons worth watching are confirmation from the other side of the table, official comment from the mediating party, and any movement in the proxies whose actions have typically preceded formal breakdowns. The distinction to hold is between headline-sensitive positioning, which unwinds quickly, and the physical flows that would only reprice on an actual agreement.