During this conflict, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have (on average) exported 26% fewer barrels of crude oil than they did during the same period last year, while the average price per barrel has risen 44% YTD, Tanker Trackers reports

A drop in Gulf export loadings alongside a materially higher crude price is the classic supply-side constraint signature, and the distinction that matters is whether barrels are shut in at source or simply stuck in transit: production cuts tend to be durable and policy-driven, while loadings shortfalls caused by shipping, insurance, or port friction have historically reversed quickly once the security premium on freight and war-risk cover normalises. The five-country aggregate obscures the usual pattern that Saudi and UAE volumes move on OPEC+ quota decisions while Iraqi and Kuwaiti exports are more exposed to infrastructure and northern-route disruptions, so the composition of the shortfall is the first thing to establish. Tanker-tracking data of this kind is a flow measure, not a stocks measure; prior episodes of conflict-related loadings declines have been partially offset by drawdowns of onshore and floating storage and by rerouting, which is why the price response tends to concentrate in prompt spreads and dated-physical differentials rather than evenly across the curve. The backwardation signal in the front of the Brent and Dubai structures has historically been the cleaner read on whether the market treats the loss as acute or chronic. Watchpoints in comparable episodes have been the trend in loadings week over week, any shift in official selling prices, and whether the shortfall widens beyond the initial conflict window.