EARNINGS PRIMER: NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings due 20th May at 21:20BST/16:20EST

Nvidia (NVDA) EPS (exp. 1.75), Revenue (exp. 78.78bln), Next Qtr. EPS (exp. 1.94), Next Qtr. Rev. (exp. 86.92bln), Current FY EPS (exp. 8.31), Current FY Rev. (exp. 369.54bln), Next FY EPS (exp. 11.26), Next FY Rev. (exp. 491.23bln)

SUMMARY:

• Investors will be closely watching the metrics given Nvidiaʼs leadership in AI, and as the Co. continues to benefit from surging capital expenditure, with AMZN, GOOGL, META and MSFT already committing USD 695-725bln in 2026. Meanwhile, since the last earnings report at Nvidiaʼs GTC event, CEO Huang said last year saw around USD 500bln in high-confidence demand and purchase orders for Blackwell and Rubin, and now sees at least USD 1tln in demand through 2027, adding he is certain computing demand will be much higher than that.
• Overall, sell-side firms (more below) are bullish into earnings and have largely raised Nvidia PT’s into earnings and see a beat and raise across the board. In the last earnings report, Nvidia guided Q1 revenue to between USD 76.44-79.56bln, above the expected USD 72.78bln at the time of the Q4 report, the consensus for Q1 revenue now is USD 78.78bln.
• Nvidia shares have surged recently, rising 19% YTD to fresh record highs. Barronʼs wrote that Nvidiaʼs rally is only getting started and that the stock remains cheap. While it will not be reflected in these earnings metrics, CEO Huang may also be asked about his recent China visit, where US President Trump said the H200 did not come up in talks with China, something Huang has since confirmed. On that footing, FT reported that China banned Nvidia's RTX 5090D V2 chip at customs points last Friday, while Huang was visiting Beijing alongside Trump. The gaming chip, introduced last August to comply with US export controls, joins the H20 and H200 on the banned list.
• Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

EXPECTATIONS:

• For Q1, adj. EPS is seen at USD 1.78 and revenue at USD 78.98bln. For the next quarter, profit and revenue are projected at USD 1.96 and USD 96.78bln, respectively, while FY EPS is seen at USD 8.36 and revenue at USD 371.66bln.

SELL SIDE INTO EARNINGS:

• Cantor Fitzgerald maintained ‘Overweight’ rating, ‘Top Pickʼ and raised PT to USD 350 (prev. 300); NVDA seen as structurally demand-constrained but supply-tight through 2026-2027 with AI compute demand driven by agentic AI and strong ROIC signals, yet its valuation has compressed due to rising concerns about competition, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) margin sustainability, and investor scepticism despite very large long-term growth expectations extending into 2028-2029.
• HSBC maintains ‘Buy’ rating and raised its PT to USD 325 (prev. 295); expects another “beat and raise” quarter. Firm believes Co. needs to show evidence of diversifying its non-cloud service provider customer base to fuel its AI graphics processing unit momentum.
• Bank of America maintained ‘Buy’ rating, top sector pick, and raised PT to USD 320 (prev. 300); upcoming catalysts include, earnings, Computex tradeshow in early June (possible new CPU launch), Vera Rubin launch in H2, and potential increased return of cash in H2. BAML is overwhelmingly positive, but does note GM may modestly come down over time (30-50bps/yr) as HBM becomes a bigger part of the cost and as competition increases.
• Wells Fargo maintained ‘Overweight’ rating and raised PT to USD 315 (prev. 265); firm raises its estimates across the board including next Qtr and FY27/28.
• KeyBanc maintains ‘Overweight’ rating and raises PT to USD 300 (prev. 275); expects strong results/guidance, with key drivers to include: 1) increasing shipments of Blackwell GPUs of 150K-200k Q/Q, representing an incremental USD 5-7bln in revenues; 2) expect guide to include initial revenues from Rubin, where it expects USD 3-4bln; 3) China H200 approvals would support USD 13-14bln in revs, but expect guide will exclude this, but anticipate mgmt. to bracket what potential rev. impact would be; 4) HBM4 supply is improving, and are expecting Rubin GPU shipments of 1.7-1.8mln this year.
• Morgan Stanley maintains ‘Overweight’ rating and raises PT to USD 285 (prev. 260); expects continued upside to numbers and bullish tone on key debates, thinks "the typical beat and raise pattern is a likely outcome" and thinks the quarter will be "a positive step towards a stock rerating." However, firm added that Nvidia "can only do so much on a Q1 earnings call to ease concerns on longer term debates."
• UBS maintains ‘Buy’ rating and raises PT to USD 275 (prev. 245); sees Q1 revenue in the ~ USD 81bln range (suggesting a ~USD 3bln beat) with revenue guidance at least as good as investor bogeys in the ~ USD 90-91bln range. A major development to watch this Q is capital return – both share Repo and a potential increase in the dividend. UBS sees potential for a new share repo commit that could approach USD 150bln over the next year.
• RBC maintains ‘Outperform’ rating and PT of USD 250; expect Q1 results and Q2 outlook to be similar to the past 3 quarters (3-5% beat/raise). AI compute demand is outpacing supply and RBC believes visibility is extending well into 2027; component shortages and power/infrastructure availability are the key near term challenges. But, RBC believes NVDA is in a relatively better position from a supply standpoint and view its balance sheet strength as a structural advantage. RBC expects hyperscaler capex to remain healthy through 2027 and are not overly concerned about competition
• Contrary to almost everyone, on May 13th, Culper Research announced they were short Nvidia. Culper said as CEO Huang has been celebrated as a generationally talented operator, they share the consensus view that AI, for better or worse, will continue to transform society. Adds it is not a bet against AI, but they are short for one reason, it has a significant China problem. Note, this was prior to Haung/Trump’s trip to China.

FUTURE DEMAND

• AMZN said in January that it expected 2026 CapEx to approach USD 200bln, and told investors on its earnings call that its plan remained “largely the same.”
• GOOGL raised 2026 CapEx guidance to USD 180-190bln (prev. 175-185bln) and said 2027 CapEx is to significantly increase from 2026, and at Google I/O on Tuesday reaffirmed the 2026 figures.
• META lifted 2026 CapEx view to USD 125-145bln (prev. USD 115-135bln).
• MSFT expects CapEx for 2026 to reach USD 190bln, incl. USD 25bln due to higher component pricing.
• 2026 Total from these four: USD 695-725bln.

LATEST 13-Fs (Nvidia stakes at large funds):

• Raised: Soros Fund Management, Tiger Global.
• Cut: Third Point.
• Top holdings: Soros Fund Management, Tiger Global.