ECB governors think further policy tightening is likely, and they may debate another hike as soon as October

The transmission runs through the front end: OIS-implied odds for the October meeting and the short end of the EGB curve, with the euro taking its cue from the rate differential rather than the rhetoric itself. The distinction worth drawing is between governors thinking further tightening is likely in principle and an actual October debate, since the former is a bias statement and the latter a calendar commitment; past episodes have shown markets treating the second as far more binding on pricing. The follow-ons that matter are whether senior figures on the Executive Board echo or dilute the message in subsequent appearances, and whether the next round of inflation and wage data gives the hawks cover. Similar inter-meeting briefings have in the past been walked back quietly when the data broke the other way, so the durability of the repricing has tended to depend on confirmation from the centre of the Governing Council rather than its more hawkish periphery.