ECB Macro Projections (March 2026): Baseline, Adverse and Severe scenarios

Caveats to the scenario analysis:

• As is the standard convention for scenario analyses in the staff projections, the scenarios assume monetary and fiscal policy are unchanged compared with the baseline. 
• The significant increases in inflation, especially under the severe scenario, would likely be partly offset by tighter monetary policy or fiscal support measures which could lower consumer energy prices – as was seen in the 2022-23 episode of high inflation