ECB officials reportedly expect more tightening with October in play

The pattern in past ECB cycles is that such leaks tend to reflect the hawkish wing testing consensus, and the re-pricing that follows has concentrated in the front end of the Eonia curve and in peripheral spreads, with the BTP-bund differential the usual tell for whether the market reads tighter policy as sustainable for the periphery. The distinction worth drawing is between another hike being live at the named meeting and one being delivered: 'in play' framing preserves optionality and keeps the decision contingent on the intervening inflation and staff projection rounds. What has typically mattered next is whether named officials on the record echo the line, since sourced-only guidance has on previous occasions been walked back by the doves within days. EUR reaction in comparable episodes has tended to fade unless the rate path re-pricing is confirmed by data.