ECB President Lagarde (Q&A): not taking a view onto the direction of policy at future meetings (asked if anyone had talked about moving into restrictive territory).
Declining to take a view on the direction of the next move is the standard posture once a central bank shifts into a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent stance: it preserves optionality in both directions and removes the forward guidance that had previously anchored the front of the curve.
Sell-side US PCE forecasts
ECB President Lagarde (Q&A): decision was unanimous, a "no-brainer"
ECB President Lagarde (Q&A): not taking a view onto the direction of policy at future meetings (asked if anyone had talked about moving into restrictive territory).
NBP Governor Glapinski says Poland's gold reserves have increased to 648 tonnes and plans to raise its reserve to 700 tonnes
ECB President Lagarde (Q&A): the ECB is once again giving "framework guidance" (when asked about market pricing and if she still feels the market understands the reaction function). Adds, the situation is primarily a supply shock.
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- Cannot anticipate the next move given the elevated levels of uncertainty.
The notable detail is the question that prompted it, whether any Governing Council members discussed moving policy into restrictive territory; past ECB cycles have shown that once the restrictive-territory framing enters the Q&A, the hawks on the Council have usually raised the possibility internally, even where the President declines to confirm it. The transmission is through the short end of the EGB curve and the two-year segment of EONIA/OIS expectations, where the absence of directional guidance typically steepens the distribution of outcomes around the next meeting rather than shifting the median. Lagarde's prior form is to give away less in press Q&A than the hawks and doves subsequently do in their own speeches, so the follow-on that has mattered in comparable episodes is the run of individual Council member commentary in the days after, plus the account of the meeting when published. Elevated uncertainty as the stated rationale also tends to raise the beta of the next inflation and wage prints to any repricing.
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