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ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2'26): Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out

The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates a near-term upward revision in both headline and core HICP inflation, while longer-term expectations remain stable.

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  • Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out.
  • Real GDP growth expectations revised down for 2026 and 2027, but unchanged thereafter.
  • Unemployment rate expectations unchanged.
Context

This suggests potential pressure on monetary policy, as rising inflation could challenge the ECB's current stance, even as GDP growth expectations are being revised downward for 2026 and 2027. The unchanged unemployment rates imply that labor markets are expected to remain steady amidst these changes.

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