ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q4): Headline and core inflation expectations revised upwards for 2026 and 2027, owing primarily to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, with longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored at 2.0%

• Near-term GDP growth expectations revised up, primarily reflecting recent data, with increasing growth continued to be expected in the short run
• Unemployment rate expectations revised up slightly for 2026, but broadly unchanged thereafter

The SPF is a second-tier input to ECB deliberations, but its longer-term inflation reading has historically carried weight beyond its size because the Governing Council cites it as evidence that expectations remain anchored; a 2.0% print at the long end therefore tends to be read as a green light rather than a constraint, whatever the near-term revisions do. Upward revisions to near-term headline and core forecasts attributed to energy pass-through are a familiar pattern from past commodity-driven episodes, where forecasters lift the short horizon on mechanical effects while leaving the anchor untouched, and the policy reaction has typically hinged on whether officials treat the shock as a level shift to look through or a persistence risk to lean against. The accompanying GDP upgrade alongside slightly higher near-term unemployment expectations is an unusual combination that points to supply-side or energy-cost drivers rather than demand overheating, a distinction that matters for how hawks and doves frame it. The transmission channel runs through the short end of the ESTR curve and breakevens at the two-to-five year sector rather than the long end, which the anchored long-term print caps. The follow-ons of note are whether ECB speakers adopt the energy-pass-through framing in coming days and how the survey sits against the staff projections at the next forecasting round.