ECB Wage Tracker Annual (2026): 2.202% (prev. estimate 2.301%)

A lower print than the prior estimate fits the disinflationary sequence the ECB has been describing, where easing wage pressures are a precondition for a continued or accelerated cutting path rather than a reason for caution. The transmission runs through the front end of the euro curve: softer compensation data compresses the services-inflation risk premium priced into near-term meeting expectations, while the long end tends to react less. What matters next is whether the tracker revision is corroborated by the broader negotiated wage series and by the ECB's own forward-looking wage indicators, and whether officials who have leaned on wage stickiness to argue for gradualism shift their language at upcoming appearances. As with prior revisions of this kind, a single print rarely re-prices the path on its own; it is the accumulation with the staff projections that does.