ECB's Escriva says we are still not in restrictive territory; what I would start to worry about is the global upward trajectory of long-term rates; this can add pressure to interest rates

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ECB's Escriva says we are still not in restrictive territory; what I would start to worry about is the global upward trajectory of long-term rates; this can add pressure to interest rates

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Context

Escriva sits toward the hawkish end of the Governing Council, and the 'not yet restrictive' framing is consistent with his prior form: officials with that lean have historically used the neutral-rate debate to argue the easing path still has room to run. The more substantive signal is the second half of the remark. When euro-area officials start flagging the global rise in long-term yields, the concern is imported term premium rather than domestic policy, a channel that has tended to transmit through the back end of core curves and, with a lag, into periphery spreads where debt servicing is most sensitive to the level of long rates. The distinction worth drawing is between the policy rate path, which the Council controls, and the long end, which it does not; remarks like this have historically preceded debate over whether the ECB should lean against the spillover via communication, pace of balance sheet runoff, or simply tolerate it. Follow-ons to note are whether other officials echo the long-rate concern, which would elevate it from individual view to committee theme, and how it sits against the prevailing market pricing of cuts. As commentary rather than decision, the signal is directional at the margin.

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