ECB’s Kocher says cannot call June hike the baseline; “we decide meeting by meeting”; a 50bp hike in June is a very unlikely scenario from today’s perspective, Econostream reports
- On timing of potential hike: “There are several meetings until the end of the year”.
- After a first hike, barring improvement, “my bias would be: one-and-watch”.
- If the ECB hikes in June, “September could be the natural next point,” but too soon to talk about now.
- Keeping rates unchanged until year-end is difficult absent price improvement.
- ECB must avoid both unnecessary hike and postponing necessary action.
Context
ECB's Kocher suggests that a June rate hike should not be considered a baseline, indicating a more cautious approach than previously anticipated. His comments imply that while hikes are a possibility, the decision will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, signaling that the market should adjust expectations regarding rate paths and timing for future decisions. This dovish tone may lead to shifts in EUR pricing and impact fixed income markets as traders reassess their outlook for ECB policy.
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