ECB's Makhlouf says he is not seeing signs of second round effects, speaking on Bloomberg TV; outlook is uncertain

The second-round-effects framing is the standard test for wage and services persistence; denying visible signs of it while flagging upside inflation risks is the characteristic hawkish hedge, signalling no urgency to ease but no appetite to pre-commit either. The meeting-by-meeting, live-meeting language is the well-worn device for keeping optionality on the table, which in past cycles has raised the sensitivity of each incoming wage and services print rather than settled anything itself. The distinction worth drawing is between the timing of the next move and the terminal destination: caution of this kind pushes on timing expectations at the front of the curve, not on the level. Follow-ons of note are whether officials closer to the council's centre echo the upside-risk framing, and whether negotiated wage data sustain or undercut the second-round judgement. As single-official commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional.