ECB's Nagel pushes back on a "insurance hike" narrative, Bloomberg TV; inflation will stay high in 2026 and remain above target in 2027

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ECB's Wunsch tells Econostream that the case for further tightening is receding and any surprise in EZ inflation before the July meeting is more likely to be on the downside,

SARB Governor Kganyago says inflation expectations have risen a little bit, Bloomberg TV; stresses data dependent approach

ECB's Nagel pushes back on a "insurance hike" narrative, Bloomberg TV; inflation will stay high in 2026 and remain above target in 2027

Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) total vehicle sales (Jun) 338,313 units, -5.9% Y/Y

EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.3 (Prev. 51.6, Low. 51.3, High. 51.6)

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  • Stresses data dependency and a meeting-by-meeting approach. Keeps options open for July and September.
  • States that the first round effects continue, which increases the chance of second round effects.
  • Not currently seeing pass-through of first round effects on wages.

Other:

  • Welcomes the German pension reform. (Bundesbank have been pushing to have an increased role on the matter).

AI:

  • AI could be inflationary in the short term, but longer-term the growth benefits could then be seen from a productivity standpoint.
  • Also highlights the better prospects on the jobs market (in relation to AI).

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