ECB's Nagel pushes back on a "insurance hike" narrative, Bloomberg TV; inflation will stay high in 2026 and remain above target in 2027

  • Stresses data dependency and a meeting-by-meeting approach. Keeps options open for July and September.
  • States that the first round effects continue, which increases the chance of second round effects.
  • Not currently seeing pass-through of first round effects on wages.

Other:

  • Welcomes the German pension reform. (Bundesbank have been pushing to have an increased role on the matter).

AI:

  • AI could be inflationary in the short term, but longer-term the growth benefits could then be seen from a productivity standpoint.
  • Also highlights the better prospects on the jobs market (in relation to AI).
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