ECB's Pereira says nat gas prices are being closely watched, specifically if winter is cold; inflation not broadening as widely in the past but will be watching closely

The relevant distinction is between a headline-driven bump and second-round broadening: past episodes of energy shocks have repriced the euro curve only where gas price gains fed through into core and wage-setting, whereas isolated spikes were typically looked through. Naming a cold winter as the trigger points to the TTF complex and storage and drawdown rates as the transmission channel into HICP prints over the heating season, rather than anything rate-setters can act on pre-emptively. The remark that inflation is not broadening as widely as before reads as the dovish counterweight, consistent with the council's centre of gravity remaining comfortable with the prevailing path. Worth watching are whether other officials echo the energy caveat ahead of the next meeting and how gas curve pricing evolves as winter forecasts firm. As commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional at most.