ECB's Rehn says that there are no signs of second round effects of inflation yet
Second-round effects have been the Governing Council's stated condition for how restrictive policy needs to stay: the argument has run that wage settlements and domestic price-setting, not the imported energy shock itself, determine whether inflation entrenches.
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ECB's Rehn says that there are no signs of second round effects of inflation yet
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A member saying the feared pass-through has not materialised removes the hawkish side of that condition and, in past cycles of this kind, has been the language that precedes a shift from how high to how long. Rehn sits on the council's more dovish wing and has form in leaning toward accommodation, so the read depends on whether the centre of gravity adopts the same framing rather than on this remark alone. The transmission channel runs through the wage trackers and negotiated pay data the ECB has said it watches, since that is the variable the second-round claim turns on; the next round of those prints now carries more weight than any single official's comments. Remarks of this sort have typically steepened the gap between dovish periphery members and hawkish core ones ahead of meetings, making the pre-meeting communications blackout and the subsequent press conference the points where it gets tested. As commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional and consistent with easing-bias build-up, not confirmation of it.
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