ECB's Vujcic says we have started a tightening cycle.

An explicit declaration that a tightening cycle has begun is a stronger formulation than the conditional guidance that typically precedes it; officials of the same institution usually soften such language with references to data dependence and gradualism, so a direct statement of this kind tends to sit at the hawkish end of the range. The channel is the front end of the EUR curve and the short-rate differential against the dollar, where the operative question is whether this reflects a single official's reading or the committee's median, since the path is set by the centre of gravity and confirmation from peers is the usual tell. The accompanying remarks distinguish crude from refined products, with diesel singled out as a persistent feed into inflation; historically, second-round pressure from energy pass-through into core goods and services is precisely the argument hawks have used to sustain tightening beyond what headline energy disinflation alone would justify. Episodes of this kind have tended to see the market test the stated commitment against subsequent prints, with each inflation release carrying elevated sensitivity once a cycle has been declared. The follow-ons are whether colleagues adopt the same framing, and how the stance is expressed in the rate decision and any balance sheet guidance that follows.