EIA Expectations: Crude -0.8M, Distillate -1.3M, Gasoline -2.4M

The established pattern in these setups is that the API print sets the initial bias overnight, and the EIA number then either confirms or fades it, with the crude line against consensus driving the first move in WTI. The case distinction that matters here is the divergence between the survey and the private estimates: expectations lean toward draws across crude, distillate and gasoline, while the private data showed a deeper crude draw but a small gasoline build, and it is that products-versus-crude split that has historically determined whether a headline draw sustains a bid or gets sold. Cushing and the production line are the secondary tells; builds at the hub against a headline draw have tended to blunt the crude reaction, while changes in the output figure feed the longer supply narrative rather than the immediate tick. The follow-ons are the implied demand and refinery utilisation lines within the report, which in past episodes have mattered as much as the headline stocks once the first reaction settles.