EIA Expectations: Crude -1.09M, Distillate -1.43M, Gasoline -0.74M

Expectation rounds ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report set the bar against which the print is traded; the established pattern is that crude's first move is a function of the surprise versus consensus, not the headline draw or build itself, and the private survey released the prior evening has already shifted that bar. Here the private estimate implied a far larger crude draw than the desk consensus now carries, a gap that in past weeks has tended to produce two-way positioning into the release and a sharper reaction when the official number resolves the discrepancy in either direction. Distillates are the cleaner signal when they diverge from crude: a draw in the middle of the barrel alongside a modest crude draw points to product demand doing the work, which refiners' margins and the diesel crack tend to reflect more directly than the flat price. Cushing matters mainly at the front of the WTI curve, where repeated draws at the delivery point have historically tightened the prompt spread; the prior week's private build there runs against that read. Watch whether the official figures confirm the private survey's direction, since the private-official divergence is the recurring source of the afternoon's price action.