EIA Expectations: Crude -1.24M, Distillate -1.33M, Gasoline -0.33M

• Crude: -1.24M, prev. -8.557M (Private -4.9M)
• Distillate: -1.33M, prev. -2.527M (Private -2.6M)
• Gasoline: -0.33M, prev. 3.518M (Private -2.0M)
• Cushing: prev. 1.862M (Private +0.9M)
• Production: prev. 13.679M

Expectations of modest draws across crude, distillate and gasoline set up a week where the consensus sits between the prior EIA print and the more bearish private survey, particularly on gasoline, where the private estimate pointed to a build against the statisticians' smaller expected decline. The private survey to EIA gap has historically been the immediate trading variable: prints that confirm the private side tend to extend the overnight move, while divergence repositions it within minutes. Gasoline is the line of substance here, since a swing from a near three and a half million barrel build to an expected small draw would signal a sharp turn in refinery runs or demand, and the Cushing figure typically matters more for the WTI curve structure, time spreads at the front, than for the flat price. Refinery utilisation and implied demand in the detail usually gate how durable any crude draw reaction proves, given that headline crude draws driven by exports have compressed differently than those driven by runs. Worth noting is where expectations versus the private survey leave the asymmetry: consensus leaning tighter than the private estimate skews the surprise distribution toward builds.