EIA Expectations: Crude -1.5M, Distillate 0.654M, Gasoline -1.1M

The established pattern on EIA day is a two-step: the private survey the prior evening sets positioning and often pre-trades the number, so the official print is judged against the gap between the two rather than against consensus alone, and a divergence between the private build and the official draw has tended to produce the sharpest front-month reaction. Worth noting the split here: crude and gasoline are expected to draw while distillate builds, and in past episodes the market has generally taken its cue from the crude and Cushing lines, with product draws treated as secondary unless they contradict the headline. The private survey showing builds across crude and products against expected official draws is the kind of mismatch that has previously resolved violently in one direction at the release. The follow-ons that matter beyond the headline are the production line, runs and utilisation, and implied demand, which have tended to set the tone for the session after the initial knee-jerk in outrights and the gasoline crack.