EIA Expectations: Crude +1.9M, Distillate -2.1M, Gasoline -1.7M

This is a pre-release consensus slate for the weekly EIA inventory report rather than the report itself, and the established pattern in these setups is that positioning ahead of the number is driven by the private API survey, which here already signalled a crude draw against an expected build. That divergence between the private survey and consensus tends to be where the short-term repricing happens, since the market partially pre-trades the API direction and the EIA print then either confirms or fades it. The spread between crude and products matters as much as the headline: a crude build alongside product draws points to refinery runs absorbing the surplus, which is read differently for WTI versus RBOB and heating oil cracks than a straight across-the-board build would be. Cushing is the usual focal point for the front of the WTI curve given its role as the delivery point, and production remains the slow-moving tell on the supply side, with the direction of revisions to that series historically carrying more weight for the balance narrative than any single week's level. The follow-ons are the print itself against these expectations and whether the implied demand figures confirm the product draws.