EIA STEO: 2026 World Oil Demand at 102.8mln BPD (prev. 102.9mln BPD); 2027 World Oil Demand at 104.8mln BPD (prev. 105.3mln BPD)

Newsquawk Staff · 7 Jul 2026, 16:23 UTC

U.S. Oil Production

2026: 13.78mln bpd (prev. 13.72mln bpd)
2027: 14.03mln bpd (prev. 14.15mln bpd)
July: 13.84mln bpd (Jun. 13.89mln bpd)
August: 13.81mln bpd

U.S. Oil Demand

2026: 20.7mln bpd (prev. 20.7mln bpd)
2027: 20.8mln bpd (prev. 20.7mln bpd)

U.S. Natural Gas Production

2026: 111.2 bcf/d (prev. 111 bcf/d)
2027: 115.3 bcf/d (prev. 113.6 bcf/d)
July: 122.4 bcf/d (Jun. 122.3 bcf/d)
August: 122.6 bcf/d

U.S. Natural Gas Demand

2026: 92.1 bcf/d (prev. 92.1 bcf/d)
2027: 95 bcf/d (prev. 95 bcf/d)

World Oil Production

2026: 101.9mln bpd (prev. 99mln bpd)
2027: 109.8mln bpd (prev. 109.3mln bpd)

World Oil Demand

2026: 102.8mln bpd (prev. 102.9mln bpd)
2027: 104.8mln bpd (prev. 105.3mln bpd)

WTI Crude Price Forecast

2026: USD 76.26/bbl (prev. USD 88.32/bbl)
2027: USD 60.76/bbl (prev. USD 74.39/bbl)

Brent Crude Price Forecast

2026: USD 81.91/bbl (prev. USD 95.39/bbl)
2027: USD 64.76/bbl (prev. USD 79.39/bbl)

Hormuz

With the resumption of oil flows, we anticipate fewer disruptions to Middle East crude oil production than in our last forecast.
We assess that production shut-ins averaged 8.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in June after peaking at 11.2 million b/d in May.
We now expect most crude oil production and trade patterns to return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of this year, with an average of 1.4 million b/d of supply still shut-in in 4Q26 and the majority of shut-in crude oil production to be back online in 1Q27.

Sources

eia.gov

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 22 Oct, 10:37 UTC · what it led with

Iran's IRGC Navy warned that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases.
Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran has presented seven new conditions through mediators and will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor resume negotiations until they are met.

Read the whole note Free to read.

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Energy headlines from our feed, and what the market did next.

Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

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