EIA STEO (November 2026): 2026 World Oil Demand: 102.4mln bpd (prev. 102.4mln bpd) ; 2027 104.4mln bpd (prev. 104.6mln bpd)

Newsquawk Staff · 10 Nov 2026, 17:27 UTC

World Oil Production

2026: 101.7mln bpd (prev. 101.1mln bpd)
2027: 108.4mln bpd (prev. 109.6mln bpd)

World Oil Demand

2026: 102.4mln bpd (prev. 102.4mln bpd)
2027: 104.4mln bpd (prev. 104.6mln bpd)

U.S. Oil Production

2026: 13.86mln bpd (prev. 13.87mln bpd)
2027: 14.3mln bpd (prev. 14.3mln bpd)
November: 14.03mln bpd (Oct. 13.81mln bpd)
December: 14.14mln bpd

U.S. Oil Demand

2026: 20.6mln bpd (prev. 20.6mln bpd)
2027: 20.9mln bpd (prev. 20.8mln bpd)

U.S. Natural Gas Production

2026: 113 bcf/d (prev. 112.2 bcf/d)
2027: 117.6 bcf/d (prev. 116.1 bcf/d)
November: 127.1 bcf/d (Oct. 126.2 bcf/d)
December: 127.6 bcf/d

U.S. Natural Gas Demand

2026: 92.3 bcf/d (prev. 92.4 bcf/d)
2027: 94.4 bcf/d (prev. 93.8 bcf/d)

WTI Crude Price Forecast

2026: USD 88.29/bbl (prev. USD 88.21/bbl)
2027: USD 80.54/bbl (prev. USD 79.74/bbl)

Brent Crude Price Forecast

2026: USD 97.44/bbl (prev. USD 96.32/bbl)
2027: USD 85.78/bbl (prev. USD 83.74/bbl)

What it means

The STEO is a monthly modelling exercise rather than hard data, and its market weight sits in the revisions, not the levels: traders read the delta against the prior edition because that is what shifts the implied balance. Here the notable move is a material downgrade to 2027 world production alongside only a modest trim to 2027 demand, which on the agency's own arithmetic narrows the projected surplus for that year considerably, even as the near-term 2026 balance loosens on an upward supply revision against unchanged demand. That split between a softer near-year balance and a tighter outer-year one is the kind of configuration that has historically mattered more for the back of the curve and calendar spreads than for the front month, and STEO prints have tended to move crude only modestly and briefly, with the more durable read-through coming when the other major agency forecasts published in the same cycle point in the same direction. The US production line, showing record-territory monthly output late in the current year, reinforces the supply-side theme that has capped rallies in comparable episodes. Follow-ons are the parallel demand and supply revisions from the other agencies and whether the price forecast changes here begin to show up in producer hedging and term structure rather than prompt pricing.

What our morning note said

What’s moving oil · about 6 hours before this headline

Ahead, the EIA STEO is due later today.
UAE is reportedly selling 1.7mln barrels of Arab light from a salvaged tanker, loading between November 10th and 20th.

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