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EU Commission downgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2026 inflation revised to 3.00% (prev. 1.9%)

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EU Commission downgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2026 inflation revised to 3.00% (prev. 1.9%)

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  • Before the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, the global economy was gaining momentum.
  • A challenging geopolitical environment and US tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on growth, but easing inflation and a robust investment cycle related to the unfolding AI revolution provided important support.
  • The EU economy was likewise strengthening while inflationary pressures were further abating.
  • The conflict materially changed this picture, delivering one of the most significant global energy supply disruptions in recent history.
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