European Labour Cost Index Final (Q2 YY) 3.10% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.20%)

Being a final estimate, revisions at this stage have historically been modest, and the print decelerating from the prior reading while landing a touch above consensus fits the pattern the Governing Council has described repeatedly: wage growth cooling from its peak but still running above rates consistent with target inflation on a sustained basis. The distinction that matters for the rates complex is between the direction of travel and the level, since easing cycles in this environment have proceeded on the trajectory of services and wage inflation rather than on any single quarterly print. On previous occasions, small beats on a decelerating series of this kind have produced only limited front-end repricing, with the bigger moves reserved for negotiated wage rounds and the staff projections that follow. The worth-watching follow-ons are the next negotiated wage tracker updates and how officials frame the wage-disinflation narrative ahead of the subsequent projection round. As a final-tier data point, the signal is confirmatory rather than market-moving in its own right.