EUROPEAN OPEN: AAPL shares rise after earnings and revenue beat; NWG LN Q1 profit beats, income target lifted; DGE LN's ready-to-drink beverages push; AZN LN Truqap recommended by FDA committee; PSON LN Q1 sales grow on virtual learning demand

• EUROPEAN OPEN: European liquidity is thinned by Labour Day holidays, with most regional markets closed, while the UK is open and the FTSE 100 started lower. Overnight, APAC equities traded higher after US shares rose to record highs, supported by strong megacap technology earnings; Apple gained more than 2% after-hours following a strong revenue forecast. In FX, USDJPY rose after Thursday’s reported intervention-driven move, with the yen giving back part of its 3% surge against the USD seen on Thursday. Overnight, Japan’s top FX diplomat Mimura declined to comment directly on intervention speculation, but reiterated Tokyo is ready to act and remains in close contact with the US, while reports suggested Washington was notified ahead of the move. Bloomberg cited traders who said that the yen rally could fade without further action. In recent trade, the JPY has been seeing strength vs the USD, which has traders on alert for possible further intervention. Elsewhere, Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food slowed to +1.5% Y/Y in April (exp. +1.8%), the weakest since March 2022 and a fifth straight slowdown. Gold slipped below USD 4,600/oz, while copper held above USD 13k/tonne as China’s Labor Day holiday subdued trading, after fabricators restocked before the break. Brent rose above USD 112/bbl after President Trump reaffirmed the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, said Iran “cannot be nuclear-armed” and left open whether a ceasefire needed to be broken. Iran’s leader Khamenei signalled Tehran would not relinquish its nuclear or missile technologies or control of the Strait of Hormuz, casting doubt on a near-term deal. On trade, USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent discussed a proposed government-to-government “Board of Trade” with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, aimed at managing bilateral trade in non-sensitive goods, alongside US producers’ access to Chinese agricultural markets. In UK data, Nationwide house prices rose +0.4% M/M in April (exp. -0.3%) to GBP 278,880, marking a fourth consecutive monthly gain, while annual growth accelerated to +3.0% Y/Y from +2.2%. Nationwide said prices remained resilient despite softer confidence and buyer enquiries, citing low household debt and improved affordability, but warned Middle East developments could weigh on growth and lift inflation.
• STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, Apple (AAPL) shares rose 2.5% in extended US trading after it reported an earnings and revenue beat, driven by strong iPhone and services sales, better-than-expected China revenue, upbeat revenue guidance, and signs the company is managing through higher memory costs and supply constraints. Sandisk (SNDK) shares fell 4.8% in extended trading, despite beating earnings, revenue and guidance, with reports suggesting that expectations were already extremely elevated after a huge rise in its shares. Western Digital (WDC) shares fell over 7% in extended trading after its stronger AI-driven storage outlook and buyback support were outweighed by profit-taking after the stock’s strong recent run. In communications, Pearson (PSON LN) reported 4% underlying group sales growth in Q1, citing strong demand for virtual learning products and US enrolment growth; said it remains on track to meet FY guidance. Roblox (RBLX) shares tumbled almost 20% in afterhours trading after it reported Q1 user numbers below expectations, following the implementation of safety features that restrict how children use the platform; it also cut its FY bookings forecast, attributing the revision to its aggressive push to enhance safety. In financials, NatWest (NWG LN) Q1 pre-tax profit rose to GBP 2bln (exp. 1.9bln), while revenue rose nearly 10% to GBP 4.4bln (vs 4.0bln Y/Y); NIM +20bps Y/Y to 2.47%, and NII came in at 3.4bln (prev. 3.4bln Y/Y). CEO said it has started the year with positive momentum, underpinned by healthy customer activity, noting it has generated over GBP 100mln of additional cost savings in Q1. The bank raised its FY income target, now expecting it at the top end of its GBP 17.2-17.6bln guidance range. In consumer sectors, Diageo (DGE LN) CEO announced a strategic push into the ready-to-drink beverages category at a meeting with staff on Tuesday, FT reports. Boston Beer (SAM) shares fell 1.3% in extended trading after top- and bottom-line misses in Q1, and lowered FY guidance, driven by a more challenging cost backdrop including tariff and commodity headwinds. In healthcare, AstraZeneca’s (AZN LN) Truqap has been recommended by FDA Advisory Committee for PTEN-deficient metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer; elsewhere, the FDA did not reach a majority vote in favour of the benefit risk profile of AstraZeneca’s camizestrant in combination with a cyclin-dependent kinase. In notable broker updates, Page (PAGE LN) was downgraded at Citi.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: Labour Day holidays across several European regions will thin liquidity conditions.
• DATA: In the UK, final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (exp. 53.6, prev. 51.0), BoE credit and lending data also due, alongside the BoE Market Participants Survey. In North America, US ISM Manufacturing PMI (exp. 53.0, prev. 52.7), with focus on prices (exp. 80.0, prev. 78.3), new orders (exp. 53.2, prev. 53.5) and employment (exp. 49.0, prev. 48.7); final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (exp. 54.0, prev. 52.3); the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow tracker (currently modelling Q2 growth of 3.7%). Canada's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is also due.
• SPEAKERS: BoE's Pill (hawkish dissenter) speaks at the National MPC Agency briefing. Fed's Miran (dovish dissenter) will give an interview on Fox at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.
• ENERGY: Baker Hughes weekly rig count data are due.
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Linde (LIN), Aon (AON), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Dominion Energy (D), Ares Management (ARES), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Estee Lauder (EL), LyondellBasell (LYB).
• PREVIEW - US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (15:00BST/10:00EDT): ISM Manufacturing PMI headline seen rising a touch to 53.0 (prev. 52.7), with prices  expected to rise to 80.0 (prev. 78.3), new orders at 53.2 (prev. 53.5), and employment at 49.0 (prev. 48.7). As a proxy, S&P Globalʼs March manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in April (from 52.3), reaching a 47-month high. Output expanded at its fastest pace in four years, while new orders posted their strongest rise since May 2022. The report, however, pointed to a more complicated underlying picture: much of the strength in orders appears to reflect precautionary stock-building rather than stronger end-demand, with survey respondents citing concerns about supply availability and price increases linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Export orders also fell at a faster pace, suggesting that demand strength is mainly domestic. S&P also flagged mounting supply-chain pressure, with supplier delivery times lengthening by the most since August 2022, driven by war-related shipping disruption and the rush to build safety stocks. On prices, input cost inflation hit a ten-month high, while output prices rose at the fastest pace since mid-2022. The labour-market signal was softer, with the employment sub-index falling for the first time in nine months, suggesting firms remain cautious despite the stronger headline reading. Looking ahead, the forward-looking components improved, with sentiment at its highest since February 2025, helped by hopes of tariff-led reshoring however, that confidence may prove fragile if supply disruptions persist.