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EUROPEAN OPEN: AZN LN & BMY discuss USD 400bln merger; PRY IM to buy ATKR for USD 3.8bln; HOLN SW sells Philippines unit for USD 807mln; Italy plans BMPS IM stake sale, BMPS IM also mulls BAMI IM deal; CBK GY to negotiate with UCG IM after tender

Newsquawk Staff ·

EUROPEAN OPEN

  • European equities start the week on the front-foot after US-President Trump cancelled strikes on Iran, and as fresh US-Iran talks will begin today. APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief. Tech shares were mixed, while Chinese RatingDog PMI data missed expectations, and there was also confirmation of coordinated US-Japan intervention to support the JPY. EM stocks started the week to the downside, led by South Korea; Samsung and SK Hynix dropped sharply, dragging the KOSPI lower, with leverage-related volatility and a stronger KRW cited.
  • Japanese stocks fell, with exporters weakening on concerns over a stronger JPY, after the US and Japan confirmed joint currency intervention. Both Tokyo and Washington pledged further action if needed. Strategists cited by Bloomberg suggested that the US used EUR rather than USD to fund purchases to avoid conflicting with its strong USD policy. JPMorgan noted the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilisation Fund held just USD 13bln in EUR assets and USD 25.5bln in USD assets as of June, though total mobilisable capacity could reach USD 187bln, with Fed participation potentially doubling that; JPM sees the coordination reducing risks of USDJPY rising beyond 164, but sees little prospect of a sustained move below 150.
  • US Treasury traders also noted news that Fed Chair Warsh is mulling reducing the number of annual FOMC policy meetings from eight, and he raised the idea at last week’s confab.
  • Gold rose to around USD 4,070/oz after President Trump said renewed US-Iran talks would begin. Brent futures fell to beneath USD 84/bbl, easing inflation concerns. Trump said he had called off a planned strike on Iran and that fresh talks would begin Monday. Elsewhere, OPEC+ approved a further 188K BPD quota increase for September, completing the theoretical unwinding of 2023 production cuts. Ahead, output quotas are expected to remain steady for the remainder of the year after the September hike, delegates reportedly said last week.
  • Iron ore futures fell to a one-year low in Singapore, exacerbated by concerns over physical trader Radiant World following reports that Vitol and Cargill stopped doing business with the firm amid fake invoice allegations; Radiant World has denied the claims. Underlying demand pressures also weighed, with Chinese mill margins weakening, hot-metal output falling for a fourth consecutive week and construction at its lowest since the pandemic, Bloomberg said.
  • China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.9 in July (exp. 51.5, prev. 51.7), a four-month low, though manufacturing conditions improved for an eighth consecutive month. New orders rose for a fourteenth straight month, while input price inflation slowed to a six-month low. Output prices were broadly flat. Input stock accumulation prompted firms to reduce purchasing activity for the first time since November 2025, the report added.
  • In trade news, France tightened foreign investment screening for critical sectors, requiring non-European investors seeking stakes of at least 10% in French companies listed domestically or abroad to obtain Finance Ministry approval; the threshold was previously 25%. Initial screening decisions will be made within 10 days, with broader reviews where necessary.
  • In data, German retail sales fell by -1.1% M/M in June (exp. -0.5%, prev. 1.1%), leaving the annual rate at -0.2% Y/Y (prev. 1.8%), triggering modest upside in Bunds. Meanwhile, Swiss CPI fell by -0.1% M/M in July (exp. -0.1%), and the annual rate pared to 0.4% Y/Y (prev. 0.5%).

STOCK SPECIFICS

  • HEALTHCARE: AstraZeneca (AZN LN) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) are in talks over a combination that would create a pharmaceutical group valued at nearly USD 400bln, according to the FT; any deal would face significant antitrust scrutiny given overlapping cancer portfolios, including competing lung cancer treatments Opdivo and Imfinzi, the report says, adding that talks may be delayed or fall apart. Novartis (NOVN SW) announced FDA approval for Pluvicto in combination with an ARPI for patients with PSMA-positive metastatic androgen pathway modulation-naive/sensitive prostate cancer. Sandoz (SDZ SW) has entered into a settlement agreement with US states regarding alleged anti-competitive conduct for generic medicines; Sandoz will pay USD 400mln over seven years, starting in 2027; settlement does not affect its FY guidance or mid-term outlook.
  • FINANCIALS: Italy is reportedly planning to sell its remaining 4.9% stake in BMPS (BMPS IM) by the end of September; separately, BMPS is reportedly considering the acquisition of Banco BPM (BAMI IM) as an alternative to fend-off Intesa Sanpaolo’s (ISP IM) hostile takeover. Commerzbank (CBK GY) CEO Orlopp is set to begin negotiations with UniCredit (UCG IM) after the Italian bank secured just under 50% of Commerzbank’s shares through a tender offer; a full takeover would represent Europe’s largest bank deal in roughly two decades, valuing Commerzbank at around EUR 40bln.
  • INDUSTRIALS: Prysmian (PRY IM) is to acquire Atkore (ATKR) for USD 95/shr in cash, implying an enterprise value of approximately USD 3.8bln. The offer represents a 23% premium to Atkore’s 90-day VWAP as of end-July. Prysmian said the deal aims to expand its North American presence and accelerate its transition into a fully-fledged electrical solutions provider. EasyJet (EZJ LN) has extended the Castlelake bid deadline to 7th August.
  • MATERIALS: Holcim (HOLN SW) agreed to sell its Philippines business to Huaxin Building Materials for at least USD 807mln; Huaxin will buy 68% for USD 527mln, with the remainder sold over three-five years for at least USD 280mln. Completion is expected in H1 2027. Holcim said proceeds will fund acquisitions and investment.
  • UTILITIES: National Grid (NG/ LN) announced a new operating model to increase accountability across the core aspects of its strategic framework. From September 2026, the Group Executive Committee will reduce from 13 to 8 members.
  • CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Aston Martin (AML LN) creditors are said to be angered by limited disclosure about a GBP 550mln financing deal with HPS Investment Partners that may weaken existing bondholders’ security.
  • NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Fresnillo (FRES LN) initiated with a Hold rating at Jefferies. Evolution (EVO SS) upgraded at UBS; Clariant (CLN SW) upgraded at Deutsche Bank; Legrand (LR FP) upgraded at RBC; Soitec (SOI FP) upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux; E.ON (EOAN GY) upgraded at Jefferies; Thales (HO FP) upgraded at Barclays. Philips (PHIA NA) downgraded at UBS; JD Sports (JD/ LN) downgraded at RBC; Severn Trent (SVT LN) downgraded at Jefferies; Unite Group (UTG LN) downgraded at Citi; Ipsen (IPN FP) downgraded at Jefferies; Klepierre (LI FP) downgraded at Jefferies.

DAY AHEAD

  • EVENTS: US President Trump said fresh US-Iran talks would begin today after he had called off a planned strike over the weekend. Trump is also set to sign an executive order at 13:30EDT/18:30BST. Canada observes Civic Holiday.
  • DATA: In Europe, final July manufacturing PMIs: Eurozone exp. 52.0 (prev. 51.4), Germany exp. 52.2 (prev. 50.3), UK exp. 52.8 (prev. 52.5), France exp. 50.0 (prev. 51.2). In North America, US ISM manufacturing PMI exp. at 53 in July (prev. 53.3), prices paid exp. 73.4 (prev. 73.0), new orders exp. 55.4 (prev. 56.0). US construction spending is also due. After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow estimate for Q3 (prev. 5.0%).
  • CENTRAL BANKS: ECB publishes two Bulletin pre-releases: “Tracing the ripple effects of the Middle East war on euro area” and “Feeling the heat unevenly: energy prices and household consumption.”
  • FIXED INCOME: The US Treasury releases quarterly financing estimates ahead of Wednesday’s QRA.
  • EARNINGS: Palantir (PLTR), Progressive (PGR), Vertex (VRTX), Marriott (MAR), Williams Companies (WMB), Diamondback Energy (FANG), ONEOK (OKE), TKO Group (TKO), ON Semiconductor (ON), EchoStar (ECHO), Tyson Foods (TSN), SBA Communications (SBAC), CNH Industrial (CNH), Clorox (CLX), Alexandria Real Estate (ARE), Snap (SNAP).
  • WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: US Jobs data, US ISM, US QRA, Chinese Trade. this week’s earnings highlights include: SpaceX (SPCX), Eli Lilly (LLY), AMD (AMD), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), McDonald’s (MCD), Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Disney (DIS), Gilead (GILD), ConocoPhillips (COP), Uber (UBER), Pfizer (PFE), CVS Health (CVS), Spotify (SPOT), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Airbnb (ABNB), Cummins (CMI), DoorDash (DASH), Phillips 66 (PSX), Honeywell (HONA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Occidental (OXY), eBay (EBAY), Take-Two (TTWO), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Sysco (SYY), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Kenvue (KVUE), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Expedia (EXPE), Kraft Heinz (KHC).
  • Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview
  • Click here for weekly US earnings estimates

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