EUROPEAN OPEN: ENR GY orders rise, sees higher sales this year; CBK GY tops expectations, boosts outlook; DSY FP misses estimates, guides below expectations; HEIA NA beer volumes decline less than expected, will cut jobs; Activist builds stake in LSEG LN

STOCK SPECIFICS: In financials, Commerzbank (CBK GY) Q4 net income, NII, revenue topped expectations, and it sees FY26 net result above EUR 3.2bln (exp. 3.41bln), with FY26 NII around EUR 8.5bln (prev. saw 8.4bln); CEO said the upgraded outlook reflects progress towards sustainable profitability and capital returns. ABN AMRO (ABN NA) reported Q4 net income of EUR 410mln (exp. of 497.4mln), citing higher expenses and provisions for bad loans. It also announced EUR 500mln in shareholder distributions, split equally between cash dividends and a share buyback programme. Elliott Management has built a significant stake in London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN), and is engaging with CEO to improve performance, after shares have fallen by more than a third over the past year, FT reports; Elliott has urged a multibillion-pound buyback and margin improvements. In industrials, Siemens Energy (ENR GY) said it is on track for another year of rising revenue as strong electricity demand boosts sales of gas turbines and power-grid products; group orders rose by over a third to EUR 17.6bln in Q1 (exp. 14.2bln), with its gas business recording its highest-ever order intake; revenue was EUR 9.6bln (exp. 9.83bln), Profit Before Special Items EUR 1.16bln (exp. 992.4mln), and it affirmed guidance. Dassault (DSY FP) FY25 revenue of EUR 6.24bln, up 4% at constant currency, with recurring revenue rising 6% and subscriptions up 11%; Q4 revenue increased 1% at constant currency to EUR 1.68bln, at the low end of guidance; forecasts revenue growth of 3-5%, operating margin of 32.2-32.6%, and EPS of EUR 1.30-1.34. Dassault announced a strategic partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) to establish new Industry World Models at scale. In consumer sectors, Ford (F) shares rose 0.8% in extended US trading despite a quarterly earnings miss, as the automaker guided stronger profits for 2026, and highlighted progress in improving its core business and cost controls. Stellantis (STLAM IM) seeks to exit its US battery joint venture with Samsung SDI as it scales back EV investments and preserves cash after announcing more than EUR 22bln in write-downs, Bloomberg reports; Stellantis is reportedly exploring divestment options, including selling its stake to a third party. Heineken (HEIA NA) said beer volumes declined 1.2% in 2025 (exp. -2.48%), indicating a smaller-than-expected drop in sales for the year; it will cut 5,000-6,000 jobs over the next two years as it faces a slump in demand for alcohol, and as part of efforts to lower costs. Ahold Delhaize (AD NA) Q4 underlying operating margin of 4.2% (exp. 3.9%), citing strong performance in the US; Q4 revenue EUR 23.5bln (exp. 23.4bln), Q4 adj. operating income EUR 899mln (exp. 918mln). Barratt Redrow (BTRW LN) HY revenue GBP 2.63bln (prev. 2.38bln), adj. operating profit of GBP 210mln (prev. 210mln) and adj. PBT & PPA adj. of GBP 199.9mln (prev. 231.4mln); gross profit margin was 15% (prev. 14.9%); home completions rose to 7.44k (prev. 7.1k); expects FY adj. pre-tax profit of GBP 558-617mln, reaffirmed completions guidance between 17,200-17,800. In energy, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) reported Q4 adj. net income of USD 3.8bln (exp. 3.9bln); exploration income -21.6% to USD 1.8bln, while refining and chemicals earnings rose 215% to USD 1bln; production increased 5%; plans USD 750mln share buybacks in Q1, and backed its FY share buyback guidance of around USD 15bln. In healthcare, Novartis (NOVN SW) received FDA orphan drug designation for a 2’-methoxyethyl antisense gapmer oligonucleotide targeting MAPT mRNA for the treatment of progressive supranuclear palsy. Gilead (GILD) shares fell 1.6% in extended trading after the company issued a FY26 outlook at the low end of expectations, including a weaker-than-anticipated forecast for its Yeztugo sales and a trimmed growth outlook due to a pricing agreement and insurance coverage uncertainty. In notable broker updates, B&M (BME LN) was upgraded at Peel Hunt; easyJet (EZJ LN) was upgraded at Citigroup; Fever Tree (FEVR LN) was upgraded at Barclays; ArcelorMittal (MT FP) was upgraded at Jefferies; Wendel (MF FP) was downgraded at Oddo; Drax (DRX LN) was downgraded at Citigroup.

TODAY’S AGENDA:

• DAY AHEAD: In Europe, the ECB’s February wage tracker will be published in the morning. The US day sees the release of the delayed jobs data for January, with the consensus looking for 70k nonfarm payrolls (prev. 50k), and the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% (see below for full preview). Elsewhere, weekly MBA mortgage applications are due. The BoC’s latest meeting minutes will be published in the afternoon. In energy, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report. On Tuesday, API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected build of +13.4mln bbls (exp. +0.8mln), Cushing stocks built by +1.4mln, distillates saw a larger than expected draw of -2.0mln bbls (exp. -1.3mln), while gasoline stocks posted a surprise build of +3.3mln bbls (exp. -0.4mln). The more widely followed weekly DoE inventory report will be published later today. Speakers due today include: ECB’s Schnabel and Cipollone; stateside, Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove; no text is expected by there will be a Q&A), Fed’s Hammack (voter, hawk; no text is expected by there will be a Q&A), Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk; text and Q&A are expected). In supply, Germany will sell EUR 1bln of 2056 and EUR 1.5bln of 2054 debt; the US Treasury will auction USD 42bln of 10yr notes. Notable US corporates reporting today include: Cisco (CSCO), McDonald’s (MCD), T-Mobile (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), AppLovin (APP), Equinix (EQIX), Vertiv (VRT), Hilton (HLT), Motorola (MSI).
• PREVIEW - US JOBS REPORT (13:30GMT/08:30EST): The delayed January jobs data is expected to show 70k nonfarm payrolls added in the month (vs a prev. 50k; with the range of forecasts between -10k to +108k); the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, but are expected to ease to 3.6% Y/Y on an annualised basis (prev. 3.8%). US labour data during the BLS window mixed but skew softer; initial claims were steady, continuing claims eased; the ADP's monthly gauge missed expectations, while Revelio reported job losses in the month. Meanwhile, Challenger job cuts saw the highest January total since 2009; ISM surveys showed a net cooling labour market momentum. Meanwhile, JOLTS for December were the lowest since September 2020. The BLS will release its final benchmark payroll revisions for the year to March 2025; a preliminary estimate indicated 911k fewer jobs; final figures are expected to be lower but still substantial, with estimates ranging from -600k to -900k. Analysts note that all reported months of 2025 have seen downward revisions, cutting 624k jobs, and reducing average monthly gains to under 40k (note: December’s figures will receive their first revision today). The BLS is also set to revise its birth-death model, incorporating current sample data to reduce persistent overstatements of job growth from net business formation. The existing model is seen as biased upwards since April 2024. Adjustments could lower payroll estimates, though the January impact is uncertain given typically negative seasonal birth-death factors.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s full US jobs report preview