EUROPEAN OPEN: GSK LN acquires trispecific T-cell engager from Chimagen; CS FP targets EPS CAGR towards the top-end of range; EQT SS consortium bids for ANE SM; PUIG SM buys remaining Isdin stake; TTE FP launches AI programme with Mistral

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities began lower. Overnight, APAC stocks were mostly lower following the recent tech selling that was triggered by calls from industry CEOs for a slowdown in AI development, which President Trump pushed-back against, while participants also digested mixed Chinese activity data, and await major central bank meetings this week.
• US 10yr Treasury yields rose above 5%, to its highest since 2007, amid higher oil prices, inflation concerns and heavy debt supply. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by 25bps on Wednesday, with money markets currently pricing over 90% probability of that outcome.
• Crude futures rose for a second day, with Brent trading above USD 107/bbl as the European day gets underway, as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remained offline after attacks. Analysts note that the Brent backwardation widened to near USD 5.15/bbl, signalling tighter near-term supply.
• Gold slipped beneath USD 4,300/oz as rising oil prices reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike this week. Copper steadied near USD 14,000/ton as fresh deliveries to LME warehouses signalled easing supply tightness; three-month futures moved to an USD 85.75/ton premium over spot, indicating ample supply. Bitcoin fell towards about USD 77,500 as optimism around the US Clarity Act faded and rate hike expectations weighed on risk assets; according to Polymarket, the probability of passage this year fell to 18% from above 30%.
• Overnight, China activity data showed retail sales rose 0.4% Y/Y in August (exp. 0.8%; prev. 0.6%), while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% YTD (exp. -7.2%; prev. -6.7%), while the jobless rate rose to 5.3% (from 5.2%). Industrial output climbed 5.2% (exp. 4.8%), driven by exports. ING said weak Chinese consumption and investment continued to weigh on growth, while resilient external demand supported industrial activity. The bank said Q3 GDP is likely to remain near or below the lower end of the target range.
• UK jobs data showed 67k additions in July (prev. 83k), with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.9% (exp. 5.0%); average earnings ex-bonus were unchanged at 3.5% in the three months through July (exp. 3.5%), while including bonuses eased to 3.9% (exp. 3.9%, prev. 4.2%). The more timely claimant count change for August printed 27.8K (exp. 8.3K), while HMRC Payrolls were down by -26K in August (prev. -19K). The UK stats office said that the labour market remains broadly stable, though payroll employment continues to edge lower, particularly in retail and hospitality. Vacancies remain near decade lows outside the pandemic, with labour costs weighing on small-business hiring. Regular wage growth is stable, while total pay growth has slowed to its weakest rate in nearly six years.
• Elsewhere, the BoE is preparing to stop selling 20yr and 30yr gilts under QT, while continuing sales of shorter maturities, the Telegraph reports. The change could save about GBP 2.5bln annually by decade-end. Short- and medium-term bonds would instead be sold directly to the DMO. The Telegraph says an announcement is expected alongside Thursday’s rate decision.
• ECB VP Vujcic warned that AI-driven equity valuations leave markets vulnerable to corrections, and unusually high earnings multiples and growing investment exposure could trigger rapid repricing. Vujcic also cited geopolitical risks and unsustainable fiscal positions in some countries as potential threats to financial stability.
• Final French HICP data for August printed 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.4%); final Spanish HICP data for August printed 4.6% Y/Y (exp. 4.5%).

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• INDUSTRIALS: Of note for Airbus (AIR FP), Thales (HO FP) and Leonardo (LDO IM), Bloomberg reports that Europe is accelerating efforts to reduce reliance on US space capabilities, including developing reusable rockets, expanding Ariane 6 and Vega-C launches, and building IRIS2 as a Starlink alternative. Separately, Airbus (AIR FP) APAC President said it does not see any softening in demand or deliveries due to geopolitical or supply chain headwinds. BAE Systems (BA/ LN) was awarded a USD 818.36mln US Army contract modification for armoured multi-purpose vehicles, taking the contract’s cumulative value to USD 3.3bln. Prysmian’s (PRY IM) acquisition of Atkore (ATKR) has received US antitrust clearance.
• ENERGY: Of note for UK energy names, the Offshore Energies UK lobby said replacing the UK’s windfall tax with a permanent price-triggered mechanism in 2027 could raise an additional GBP 15bln in tax revenue through 2035; the trade association said earlier reform could unlock GBP 50bln of private investment, 111 projects and higher domestic oil and gas production, reducing LNG import dependence. BP’s (BP/ LN) Whiting Refinery said talks with United Steelworkers Local 7-1 were constructive; BP is proposing a six-year agreement including a 150-day industrial peace period before any future strike or lockout. TotalEnergies (TTE FP) announced a three-year joint programme with Mistral involving more than EUR 100mln of investment to develop frontier AI models for geoscience work.
• CONSUMER DEFENSIVE Puig Brands (PUIG SM) agreed to buy the 50% of Isdin it does not already own from Esteve for EUR 1.2bln; Puig will pay EUR 900mln at closing and EUR 300mln in Q1 2029. The deal gives Puig full control of Isdin and expands its skincare presence, which accounted for 11% of 2025 group revenue.
• FINANCIALS: Of note for UK financials, UK banks are launching a fundraising round seeking about GBP 50mln for the UK Payments Delivery Company, Sky News reports; the vehicle will develop future payments infrastructure that could eventually become a domestic alternative to Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V). AXA (CS FP) targets 7-9% underlying EPS CAGR, 15-17% underlying ROE and mid-teens book value per share CAGR for 2027-29; for FY26, it expects underlying EPS growth and underlying ROE at the top end of its respective 6-8% and 14-16% target ranges.
• UTILITIES: EQT (EQT SS) has reportedly partnered with Norges Bank Investment Management to bid as a consortium for Acciona Energia (ANE SM), according to Expansion.
• HEALTHCARE: GSK (GSK LN) agreed to acquire a potential best-in-class trispecific T-cell engager from Chimagen Biosciences for development and commercialisation in multiple myeloma. The programme is expected to enter Phase I trials in 2027. Ascendis Pharma (ASND) plans to advance once-monthly TransCon Semaglutide for obesity and type 2 diabetes after regaining exclusive metabolic and cardiovascular rights from Novo (NOVOB DC); the terminated collaboration will return all related licences to Ascendis with no continuing financial obligations between the companies. Health Canada issued an alert over serious and life-threatening viral reactivation cases linked to Sanofi’s (SAN FP) TZIELD; TZIELD is now contraindicated in patients with an active viral infection, any active serious infection, or who are immunocompromised.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: UniCredit (UCG IM) was initiated with Sector Perform at RBC; Nokia (NOKIA FH) initiated with Buy rating at Rosenblatt. GSK (GSK LN) upgraded at Berenberg; Axfood (AXFO SS) upgraded at Nordea. Ambu (AMBUB DC) downgraded at UBS; Lundbeck (LUN DC) downgraded at Deutsche Bank.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: US Treasury Secretary Bessent will testify on the State of the International Financial System before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
• DATA: In Europe, Germany ZEW economic sentiment headline is seen at 37 (prev. 34.2), and current conditions at -52.2 (prev. -61.1); the Eurozone ZEW is seen at 39.9 (prev. 31.4). Eurozone trade balance (prev. EUR 8.6bln) data is also due. In North America, weekly ADP employment stats are due (prev. 12K). The NY Fed manufacturing index will be published (prev. 20.60). Canada will release final wholesale sales data (-0.6% M/M, prev. 2.8%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: ECB’s Cipollone participates in a panel discussion.
• SUPPLY: US sells USD 13bln of 20yr bonds. UK auctions GBP 2bln 2029 and 2040 debt via tender. Germany sells EUR 5bln of 2028 Schatz.
• ENERGY: After the US close, API will release its weekly energy inventory data.