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EUROPEAN OPEN: MU edges up after results/guidance; IFX GY considers future Thailand wafer fab; SAN FP & REGN expand antibody collaboration; UBSG SW investor urges Swiss exit; PNDORA DC says US demand stabilised; LHA GY and AF FP improve TAP bids

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[MARKET UPDATE] Energy benchmarks continue to climb (Brent +1.1%), lifting bond yields (UK 30yr 6%) and weighing on the equity space; European tech sector now flat after opening +0.5%; fresh newsflow light

Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 49.5)

EUROPEAN OPEN: MU edges up after results/guidance; IFX GY considers future Thailand wafer fab; SAN FP & REGN expand antibody collaboration; UBSG SW investor urges Swiss exit; PNDORA DC says US demand stabilised; LHA GY and AF FP improve TAP bids

South Korea's Industry Minister says he lodged strong objections with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick over his announcement on the Alaska LNG project

European Movers: Sanofi (SAN FP) +3.4%, Infineon (IFX GY) +2.4%, ASML (ASML NA) +1.3%, UBS (UBSG SW) -1.2%, Land Securities (LAND LN) -1.9%

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EUROPEAN OPEN

  • European equities opened with a downside bias. Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed amid Mainland China and Hong Kong being shut for the National Day holiday, and after a similar lead from Wall Street, where participants digested a slew of data, while yields continued to climb despite PCE data coming in below expectations.
  • USD/JPY saw upside as the BoJ September meeting summary and Q3 Tankan report reduced expectations for an October rate hike. Japan’s Q3 Tankan survey showed mixed sentiment and weaker capex expectations, easing pressure for any immediate October BoJ hike, though analysts said that the case for hikes further ahead remains. Market pricing for an October rise fell below 20% (vs 30%+ before the updates), while a December hike remains fully priced.
  • US President Trump said developments regarding Iran would be seen “very soon”, and reiterated his view that the US had almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz, while also reiterating his view that gasoline prices would fall when the war ends.
  • Crude futures are mixed but not too far off neutral as traders assessed recovering Middle Eastern oil flows and continued fuel market tightness. Regional crude exports are approaching pre-war levels, although fuel supplies remain constrained and US distillate inventories are at their lowest seasonal level on record.
  • Trump said a US diesel export ban remains under consideration but acknowledged advisers’ warnings that it could raise gasoline and other fuel prices, Politico reports. Energy Secretary Wright said the administration and European governments would soon announce alternative measures aimed at lowering diesel prices.
  • European Commission officials will present member states with examples of reforms, investments and outputs and discuss regional aspects of the EU budget, Politico reports. The proposed system would give the Commission greater control, combine agriculture, regional and migration spending into national NRPP funding pots, and potentially tie payments to economic reform milestones.
  • France will today present a EUR 54bln fiscal package targeting a 2027 deficit of 5% of GDP (vs 5.4% in 2026); measures include savings on pensions, public sector wages and sick leave, alongside extending a tax on large companies.
  • On the trade front, EU Steel Exports fell 20%, with US-bound shipments down 29% in H1 2026, as high energy costs, US tariffs and Chinese oversupply weighed on competitiveness; EU raw steel output fell 3% in 2025 and 1% in the first five months of 2026. Trade measures have supported a modest recovery.
  • The UK raised GBP 2.2bln via National Savings & Investments in the first five months of FY26/27, well below its GBP 15bln FY target; reports say the shortfall could increase gilt issuance needs.
  • BoE Governor Bailey warned that the AI investment boom could cause financial market shocks and asset price corrections; Bailey said the BoE is monitoring the sector closely and wants the financial system resilient to possible shocks.
  • In data, Swiss CPI was unchanged M/M in September (exp. 0%, prev. 0.4%), though the annual rate ticked up to 1.0% Y/Y (exp. 1.0%, prev. 0.8%). In the UK, Nationwide data showed UK house prices fell 0.2% M/M to GBP 274,251, the sharpest decline since May and fourth drop in five months, as higher borrowing costs deter buyers; the annual rate cooled to 0.8% Y/Y (exp. 1.3%, prev. 1.6%).

STOCK SPECIFICS

  • TECH: Micron (MU) shares edged higher in extended US trading as strong quarterly results and upbeat guidance underscored robust AI-driven memory demand, although expected margin compression and higher operating expenses limited the reaction. Infineon Technologies (IFX GY) sees potential to manufacture semiconductors in Thailand after investing THB 48bln to expand assembly and packaging operations, Bloomberg reports. COO said wafer fabrication could follow, though not within three years.
  • COMMUNICATIONS: Sky News reports Epiris is pressing BT (BT/A LN) to waive more than GBP 100mln of payments owed by TalkTalk’s wholesale network PXC to Openreach.
  • HEALTHCARE: Sanofi (SAN FP) and Regeneron (REGN) expanded their antibody collaboration to co-develop and co-commercialise four new long-acting Regeneron antibodies; Regeneron will receive USD 1bln upfront from Sanofi and could earn up to an additional USD 7bln in development, regulatory and commercial milestone payments. Regeneron’s (REGN) trevogrumab combined with Novo Nordisk’s (NOVOB DC) semaglutide reduced muscle-mass loss by 50% versus semaglutide alone. At 52 weeks, a 75mg trevogrumab dose preserved more than 70% of thigh muscle-mass loss compared with semaglutide alone. Roche (ROP SW) said its giredestrant combination significantly improved progression-free survival in ER-positive advanced breast cancer in phase 3 evERA data; elsewhere, a VOYAGER study confirmed Vabysmo’s real world effectiveness, with vision gains and anatomical improvements in untreated eyes and stable or improved vision in previously treated eyes. Lundbeck (HLUNB DC) said 60% of participants were ‘much improved’ or ‘very much improved’ after eptinezumab treatment in the Phase 4 THRIVE trial’s primary endpoint analysis.
  • FINANCIALS: Artisan Partners urged UBS Group (UBSG SW) to leave Switzerland over stricter capital rules, calling the country unattractive; UBS reaffirmed its commitment to operating globally from Switzerland. BBVA (BBVA SM) will pay shareholders a gross interim cash dividend of EUR 0.37/shr. BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is entering the Nordic wealth-management market and appointed Stina Norrhede as regional head; the expansion will begin in Stockholm, with additional hires planned by year-end.
  • CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Pandora (PNDORA DC) CEO said US demand has stabilised at a low level amid inflation, high gasoline prices and geopolitical uncertainty; Asia remains stronger. Elsewhere, Pandora opened a USD 150mln Vietnam factory expected to provide one-third of manufacturing capacity and produce 60mln jewellery pieces annually at full capacity by 2030.
  • INDUSTRIALS: KNDS CEO told Handelsblatt that the company’s IPO has been suspended, but not cancelled; the board has asked KNDS to remain ready to go public at any time, while the company is also seeking two additional industry partners. Parpublica received two improved binding offers from Lufthansa (LHA GY) and Air France-KLM (AF FP) for TAP; it will prepare a report assessing the merits of each bid.
  • MATERIALS: Rio Tinto (RIO LN), the Tasmanian Government and Australian Government agreed arrangements to keep Bell Bay Aluminium operating through 31st December 2031. * Glencore (GLEN LN) is considering Venezuelan coal deals, and is working with Peabody Energy on a possible offer for assets in Zulia state.
  • UK EX-DIVIDENDS: Going ex-dividends today: British American Tobacco (BATS LN), Weir Group (WEIR LN), Smith & Nephew (SN/ LN).
  • NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Bouygues (EN FP) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg. BP (BP/ LN) upgraded at Wells Fargo; Iberdrola (IBE SM) upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Saab (SAABB SS) upgraded at Bank of America; Telenor (TEL NO) upgraded at Berenberg. Tele2 (TEL2B SS) downgraded at Berenberg; Sandvik (SAND SS) downgraded at BNP Paribas.

DAY AHEAD

  • EVENTS: US President Trump will deliver remarks at 19:00EDT/00:00BST. French Budget draft to be released.
  • DATA: In Europe, Eurozone manufacturing PMI finals are due: Eurozone exp. 52.7 (prev. 52.7), Germany exp. 53.8, (prev. 54.3), UK exp. 52.0 (prev. 51.7), France exp. 50.3 (prev. 51.1). Eurozone August unemployment stats are released (prev. 6.4%). In North America, US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to see the headline inch up to 55.0 (prev. 54.6), with prices up to 72.3 (prev. 71.1), new orders at 53.9 (prev. 53.7), and employment at 51.5 (prev. 51.2). Weekly initial jobless claims are seen ticking up to a still-low 200K (prev. 197K), while continuing claims are seen rising to 1,730K (prev. 1,720K). The monthly Challenger job cuts data is expected to print 78.0K (prev. 52.881K). Elsewhere, construction spending is due (prev. -0.5% M/M). After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 GDPNow tracking estimate (prev. 3.7%).
  • CENTRAL BANKS: There is a dense central bank slate around the Future of Money conference: ECB President Lagarde speaks twice (on ESRB’s 15th anniversary and on the EU financial system); ECB’s Schnabel will speak on the Future of Money; ECB’s Cipollone will speak on single market payments; ECB’s Machado speaks (text released). BoE Governor Bailey gives opening remarks; BoE chief economist Pill chairs a panel; BoE’s Mann will speak at an event hosted by Nomura. Today’s Fedspeak includes: Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter), Collins (2028 voter), Schmid (2028 voter) speak jointly; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) will give remarks on the policy outlook; Fed Governor Waller will speak on Fed economic data; Fed Governor Bowman will give remarks on financial regulation; Fed Governor Cook and Fed’s Williams (voter) speak on global central banking; Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) is also due to speak today. In Canada, BoC’s Rogers addresses the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce. Elsewhere, Riksbank’s Jansson on the economic situation and Swedish monetary policy.
  • SUPPLY: France auctions EUR 10–12bln of 2036, 2037, 2038 and 2048 debt; Spain sells EUR 4.5–5.5bln of 2029, 2036 and 2046, alongside EUR 0.25–0.75bln of 2036 linkers. US announces sizes for next week’s 3s, 10s, and 30s auctions.
  • ENERGY: EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change (prev. +53bcf).
  • EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings reports due today include: Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE), McCormick (MKC).

Context

European open wraps of this breadth rarely contain one dominant theme; the tradeable threads here are the Tankan-driven repricing of October BoJ pricing toward December, which has been the recurring pattern when meeting summaries and capex readings undercut the near-term case, and the renewed Hormuz and diesel-export-ban commentary from Washington, where rhetoric of this kind has historically moved crude and distillate cracks through the freight, insurance and inventory channels rather than through outright supply loss. The French budget presentation is the fiscal event of the session: deficit-path announcements against the EU excessive deficit framework have tended to trade through the OAT-Bund spread, and prior episodes in which consolidation leaned on one-off corporate levies were received with more scepticism than those built on spending restraint. The NS&I shortfall relative to the full-year target is a gilt supply tell worth tracking at upcoming DMO revisions, since retail undershoot has previously translated into heavier syndication calendars. Bailey's AI bubble warning fits the established pattern of BoE financial stability commentary: directional for sentiment at the margin, without policy content. The dense Fedspeak slate around ISM and claims is the afternoon's sequencing risk, with Jefferson and Waller carrying the most path-relevant weight.

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