EUROPEAN OPEN: NOVOB DC & LLY face GLP-1 vision-loss lawsuits; GLE FP raises 2029 ROTE target; KNIN SW & AMZN partner on long-term AWS logistics; P911 GY could face 4,100 additional job cuts; VOLCARB SS appoints Klaus Zellmer as next CEO

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities start the week higher; tech leads, energy lags. Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed, with cautious gains across most markets ahead of the UN General Assembly and Trump-Xi summit. Trading conditions were thinned as Japanese markets remain closed through Wednesday.
• Crude futures are lower; December Brent is trading above USD 99/bbl, as traders monitored diplomacy around the US-Iran war and stronger flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached a six-month high over the past two weeks, CENTCOM said, adding that primary transit lanes are mine-free, and over 1bln bbls of crude have moved through recently.
• In geopolitics, President Trump said he was considering options including destroying Iran, maintaining economic pressure or reaching a deal; he added that he was probably open to meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly. An IRGC spokesman said the group is prepared for a long-term conflict, has had no official or unofficial relations with the US, and would expand the geographical scope of any renewed invasion; added that Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities outweigh US technological advantages, and that the conflict remains ongoing.
• Elsewhere in geopolitics, NATO selected German General Carsten Breuer to chair its Military Committee from mid-2027. Breuer will succeed Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone and serve as NATO’s senior military adviser to political leaders. Germany said the appointment reflects confidence in its increased defence spending and growing role in European security.
• In Europe, Budget Minister Amiel said France will not introduce broad fuel tax cuts, despite record diesel and petrol prices. The government has extended targeted aid to affected sectors and is considering strategic stockpile releases. Comes as Germany and Italy have introduced broader fuel-relief measures, though France faces budget pressures.
• Gold edged lower as traders assessed persistent inflation and the Fed’s rate outlook after it last week fired its first hike since 2023. Bullion starts the European day around USD 4,355/oz. Many Fed officials are due to speak this week, including Fed’s Williams, Jefferson, Barr, Barkin, Hammack, Paulson and Goolsbee. Copper held recent gains as traders assessed near-term supply tightness and stronger buying interest in China, as planned Chinese refinery maintenance and port congestion constrained supply.
• In politics, German Chancellor Merz said he would remain in office after his CDU won just 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania’s state election, missing the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time in postwar history. The far-right AFD won with 38.2%, ahead of the Social Democrats’ 35.5%. In Berlin, the CDU was defeated by the Left party, which won 25.7% against the CDU’s 18.8%.
• In CRA activity, on Friday, Scope downgraded France’s long-term ratings to ‘A+’ from ‘AA-’ and revised the outlooks to stable; DBRS affirms France at ‘AA’, though lowered the outlook to negative. Scope upgraded Greece’s rating to BBB+ with stable outlook.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• HEALTHCARE: Patients are suing Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) and Eli Lilly (LLY), alleging GLP-1 drugs caused NAION, a condition involving sudden, often permanent vision loss, WSJ reports. Evidence on causation is mixed; the FDA is investigating, while European regulators classify NAION as a very rare semaglutide side effect. Novo and Lilly dispute that their drugs cause the condition. Pfizer (PFE) agreed to share part of increased overseas drug revenue with the US Department of Health under a most favoured nation contract; the provision covers existing medicines from 1st January 2026 to 20th January 2029. Revenue-sharing rates and covered medicines were redacted, and proceeds are intended to lower costs for US patients and taxpayers.
• FINANCIALS: Societe Generale (GLE FP) raised its 2029 return on tangible equity target to between 13-14%, with more than 15% targeted thereafter; it plans at least EUR 21bln of shareholder distributions through 2029, around 3% annual revenue growth and a cost income ratio below 55%, supported by headcount, IT and procurement reductions and greater AI use. UBS Group (UBSG SW) CEO Ermotti said a Swiss proposal allowing 50% AT1 debt to back foreign businesses would be “bearable” but still damaging; UBS would need about USD 13bln of additional Tier 1 capital under the compromise. Parliament is due to vote between this option and stricter capital requirements in the coming days. Partners Group (PGHN SW) is exploring moving around EUR 800mln of private credit loans into a continuation vehicle; the structure would allow the firm to buy loans from existing funds and hold the assets for longer.
• CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Kuehne+Nagel (KNIN SW) announced a long-term strategic collaboration with Amazon (AMZN) covering AWS infrastructure lifecycle services. The partnership spans construction, equipment deployment, ongoing maintenance, upgrades and expansion projects. Porsche (P911 GY) could face around 4,100 additional job cuts under Volkswagen’s (VOW3 GY) restructuring plan, Handelsblatt reports; the proposed reductions would address an overhead shortfall of about EUR 700mln and come on top of previously agreed cuts. Volvo Car (VOLCARB SS) appointed Klaus Zellmer as President and CEO, effective no later than 1st October 2027. Hakan Samuelsson will work with the board to ensure a smooth transition. Zellmer most recently served as Chairman of the Board of Management and CEO of Skoda Auto, part of Volkswagen (VOW3 GY).
• ENERGY: DCC Energy (DCC LN) shareholders approved a takeover by KKR (KKR) and Energy Capital Partners valued at over GBP 5.7bln; the transaction is expected to complete in Q1 2027. Venezuela and TotalEnergies (TTE FP) signed an agreement paving the way for TotalEnergies to return to energy operations in the country. The move follows recent Venezuelan energy deals involving Chevron (CVX), GE Vernova (GEV) and Eni (E), and comes after TotalEnergies exited Venezuelan oil and gas operations in 2021.
• INDUSTRIALS: An Advent- and FedEx (FDX)-led consortium cleared the 80% acceptance threshold required to acquire InPost (INPST NA) for EUR 7.8bln. Of note for Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), BAE Systems (BA/ LN), a US House committee is investigating the diversion of unserviceable F-35 components from Australia to Hong Kong. The Pentagon is working to retrieve the parts and strengthen safeguards.
• MATERIALS: EU antitrust regulators are set to veto UPM-Kymmene’s (UPM FH) EUR 1.42bln paper joint venture with Sappi after the companies declined to offer concessions addressing competition concerns, according to Reuters.
• REAL ESTATE: Of note for UK homebuilders and real estate companies, the government is reportedly considering extending a new property tax to homes worth over GBP 1.5mln, according to The Times; lowering the threshold would more than double the number of affected properties. Staying in the UK, Rightmove said asking prices rose 0.7% M/M in September (prev. -2.0%), while prices fell 0.8% Y/Y (prev. -1.0%); average asking prices reached GBP 367.4K, described as an “autumn bounce.” Homes for sale reached a 12-year high, though buyer demand remains below last year’s levels, amid stretched affordability and rising mortgage rates.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: US President Trump will meet with NYC Mayor Mamdani at 16:10EDT/21:10BST, and will meet French President Macron at 17:35EDT/22:35BST in New York.
• DATA: In Europe, the ECB publishes two Economic Bulletin pre-releases on wholesale energy price pass-through and the impact of the Middle East conflict on firm expectations. In North America, US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (prev. -0.08).
• CENTRAL BANKS: ECB President Lagarde (neutral) delivers opening remarks at an ECB roundtable (no text); ECB’s Cipollone chairs a panel at the same event (no text). Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, neutral) speaks on the policy outlook. BoC Governor Macklem delivers remarks.
• WEEK AHEAD: Notable highlights this week include China President Xi’s visit to the US, Global Flash PMIs, Aussie jobs, and an SNB policy announcement. Notable corporates reporting this week include: Costco (COST), Cintas (CTAS), AutoZone (AZO), Paychex (PAYX), Darden (DRI), General Mills (GIS).