EUROPEAN OPEN: NOVOB DC signs EUR 1.17bln Nanexa licensing deal; UBSG SW revives talks over leaving Switzerland; AIR FP A321neos defects; BP/ LN mulls USD 2-5bln US shale acquisitions; HFG GY cuts FY26 adj. EBITDA view

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities started the last trading session of the week with gains. Futures of the Euro Stoxx 50 are on course for flat performance this week, following two weeks of losses, while the broader Stoxx 600 is also primed for an indifferent performance following three weeks of downside. Overnight, APAC stocks were mixed following the inconclusive handover from the US, where the major indices finished flat as the bond rout deepened, while conditions were thinned in the region owing to the holiday closures in South Korea, Taiwan and Mainland China.
• In US-China news, President Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House; while the US-China trade truce was extended from November to January, disputes over tariffs, rare earths, chip access and Taiwan remain unresolved after this week’s meetings. Xi reiterated opposition to US arms sales to Taiwan, the leaders discussed AI without agreeing safeguards, and China confirmed two pandas will soon arrive in Atlanta.
• Crude futures fell as US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent prices declined after rising more than 7% over two days. US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports; Qatar is mediating. Iran also offered a 7-day proposal tied to US concessions, including ending the blockade and unfreezing assets.
• In European energy news, the Netherlands reportedly wants to scrap mandatory EU gas storage targets after spending nearly EUR 1bln this year to refill reserves. A Dutch minister argued EU rules force governments to do a job the market should handle, with falling consumption and other governments’ large-scale purchases skewing storage economics. Dutch storage sites are just over 56% full vs Europe’s 70% (below the seasonal norm of 86%, Bloomberg said). The Netherlands is also considering expanding its strategic reserve from 5TWH to as much as 72TWH.
• Global bonds have stabilised after this week’s sharp selloff, as oil prices eased; markets continue to price three additional 25bps Fed hikes over the next year.
• The JPY has seen strength in recent trade, with USD/JPY briefly dipping below 158; overnight Japanese FinMin Katayama said monetary policy remains for the BoJ to decide; she also said that President Trump raised concerns over recent JPY weakness, and Japan will coordinate closely with the US on FX. Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs revised its 12-month USD/JPY forecast to 150 (from 165), citing a potential faster pace of BoJ hikes, and potential capital repatriation into Japanese assets.
• Gold is set for a weekly decline as elevated energy prices, higher bond yields and Fed rate hike expectations weighed. Spot gold is trading flattish around USD 4,270/oz as Europe enters.
• In data, UK GfK consumer confidence rose to -13 in September (exp. -16; prev. -14); GfK said willingness to make major purchases weakened, while savings intentions increased amid concerns over rising energy costs and inflation. German GfK consumer confidence for October printed -30.6 (exp. -27.4, prev. -26.8), its lowest since May; rising energy prices weighed on income expectations and purchasing power, while consumers’ willingness to save also increased.
• In central banks, Dutch PM Jetten backed former central banker Klaas Knot as a potential ECB president, stating that many European countries could see him as a strong fit. Knot is among the frontrunners alongside Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos; EU leaders are expected to consider current President Lagarde’s successor by year-end.
• In trade news, the EU urged the UK to align more closely with its China trade policy, including potentially matching tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese EVs, to avoid “made in Europe” barriers, according to the FT. Brussels said joining the customs union would address most concerns, while the UK continues to rule that option out for now. Elsewhere, the White House asked OpenAI and Anthropic not to share new AI models with the UK testing agency until US government testing is completed first, according to Politico; the report said the move represents another setback for UK PM Burnham’s push for a global AI agreement.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• HEALTHCARE: Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) signed a global licensing and collaboration deal with Nanexa worth up to EUR 1.165bln for long-acting injectable drug-delivery technology. The agreement includes EUR 615mln upfront, milestone payments and low-single-digit royalties, covering certain peptide drugs for obesity and type 2 diabetes. AstraZeneca (AZN LN) said perioperative Imfinzi plus neoadjuvant enfortumab vedotin received US Priority Review for muscle-invasive bladder cancer; the application is based on Phase III VOLGA results showing statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in event-free survival and overall survival. Fresenius Medical (FME GY) is refining its China strategy to focus on locally relevant innovation, and now expects EUR 110mln of one-time costs in Q3.
• FINANCIALS: UBS (UBSG SW) has revived discussions about leaving Switzerland, potentially via a merger with a foreign bank, after parliament advanced tougher capital requirements, according to Semafor. The article mentions possible partners could include Morgan Stanley (MS), Standard Chartered (STAN LN) or Deutsche Bank (DBK GY).
• INDUSTRIALS: Airbus (AIR FP) identified a corrosion protection defect affecting more than 500 A321neos, including roughly 250 aircraft still in production, according to The Air Current. The issue is not considered a safety risk, but may require inspections and rework, potentially pressuring deliveries. Airbus does not currently expect to change its FY26 delivery guidance, the article adds.
• ENERGY: BP (BP/ LN) is evaluating USD 2-5bln acquisitions to expand its US shale business, and is considering a bid for Devon Energy’s (DVN) Eagle Ford assets, Reuters reports. Repsol (REP SM) said about 90% of its crude supply risks breaching new EU methane rules from January, Bloomberg reports. Only around 10-15% of supplies are confirmed compliant, but Repsol is still signing contracts without required provisions to avoid refinery shutdowns. The company has reserved legal rights and may challenge enforcement.
• MATERIALS: Celanese (CE) announced price increases for its ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene and polyoxymethylene engineered materials, citing recent market developments and global supply-chain disruptions.
• CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: HelloFresh (HFG GY) Q2 revenue EUR 1.55bln (exp. 1.53bln), adj. EBITDA EUR 120.6mln (exp. 117.8mln); expects Q3 2026 revenue below market expectations, and cut its FY26 adj. EBITDA view to EUR 250-370mln (exp. 372.9mln) citing weaker new customer acquisition amid a sharper Y/Y reduction in Q3 marketing spend.
• TECH: Dutch PM Jetten said he has discussed preventing further US export restrictions on ASML (ASML NA) with President Trump and lawmakers; Jetten expressed confidence a workable agreement can be reached over the proposed MATCH Act, which would restrict sales to China of ASML’s immersion DUV lithography machines. Akamai (AMAK) signed a 7yr USD 11.6bln cloud services deal with Anthropic, and Anthropic was also granted a warrant for up to 5% of AKAM stock. SpaceX (SPCX) chief Musk said xAI’s Colossus 2 cluster has 110K Nvidia (NVDA) GB200 chips and 440K GB300s, with another 220K GB300s due next week and 220K in November. A further 220K could come online in late December, potentially more than doubling the current Nvidia chip count by year-end.
• COMMUNICATIONS: Of note for Deutsche Telekom (DTE GY), T-Mobile (TMUS) raised its quarterly dividend +15% to USD 1.17/shr.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Glencore (GLEN LN) upgraded at UBS, Kerry (KYGA LN) upgraded at Citi, Next (NXT LN) upgraded at Citi, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) upgraded at HSBC , Klepierre (LI FP) upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux .

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: Chinese markets closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival.
• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone M3 money supply (prev. 3.4% Y/Y), loans to companies (prev. 4.4% Y/Y) and households (prev. 3.1% Y/Y). In North America, final Michigan consumer sentiment for September is due (exp. 47.8, prev. 51.7), current conditions (exp. 50.9, prev. 51.9), expectations (exp. 45.8, prev. 51.5), 1yr inflation expectations (exp. 4.6%, prev. 4.0%) and 5yr (exp. 3.4%, prev. 3.3%); US durable goods orders seen -0.4% M/M (prev. 1.1%), ex-transport at 0.4% M/M (prev. 0.4%). After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 GDPNow tracking estimate (prev. 5.10%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Williams (voter, neutral) and BoE Governor Bailey (neutral) participate in a joint policy panel; Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk) speaks; Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter, hawk) speaks at an inflation conference; ECB’s Vujcic (neutral) participates on a policy panel.
• CRA: Potential reviews are due from Moody’s on the EU (Aaa), and Italy (Baa2); Scope Ratings reviews the EU (AAA).
• ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 452, gas 134, total 595).