EUROPEAN OPEN: SHEL LN beats as Iran war lifts oil prices; RHM GY misses sales estimates, backlog rises; FLTR LN rises despite guidance cut and weaker profit; MAERSKB profit down as Ocean rates weigh; SHL cuts revenue outlook on weaker China diagnostics

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened higher, and global equities rose overnight on optimism the US and Iran were nearing a deal. The MSCI All Country World Index and MSCI’s Asian gauge both hit fresh all-time highs overnight, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped after a holiday break. President Trump said Iran wants to negotiate and reiterated the US would not allow it to have a nuclear weapon. He was said to be optimistic about an Iran framework within one week, while US officials said military action remained possible without an agreement. Iran’s response to the US proposal is expected today, according to CNN, though no time has been confirmed. Reports from mediator Pakistan were constructive, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson in recent trade sating that it would expect an agreement sooner rather than later. Oil fell further after dropping nearly 8% on Wednesday as the US and Iran weighed a new push to end the Middle East war, with Brent trading below USD 100/bbl. Gold extended gains after its biggest daily rise since late March, with bullion near USD 4,750/oz, as optimism over a potential US-Iran deal pressured oil, eased inflation concerns, weighed on bond yields and pushed the USD back to pre-war levels. In trade news, the EU failed to finalise a delayed US deal during overnight talks despite Trump’s tariff warnings; European Parliament and EU country negotiators discussed possible amendments to the transatlantic deal, initially struck last July, but reached no conclusive decision. In central bank comments, ECB’s Kocher said the ECB will consider hikes in coming months if there is no improvement, adding the central bank is in data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting mode; ECB's Nagel said the central bank is likely to raise rates unless the outlook improves markedly. In the UK, BoE officials are privately concerned upcoming Q1 growth figures may give false signals and complicate rate setting; data due next week are expected to show a positive picture for the UK economy, though Bloomberg said fewer people believe them. In data, German factory orders rose 5.0% M/M in March (exp. 1.1%), linked to businesses potentially building stocks amid supply disruption and higher price concerns after the outbreak of the Iran war, while orders had already been climbing into late 2025.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• TECH: Arm Holdings (ARM) shares fell over 4% in extended trading, despite beating quarterly expectations and issuing firm guidance, and highlighting strong demand for its new data-centre CPU, as weaker-than-expected royalty revenue and rising operating expenses offset enthusiasm for its AI server opportunities.
• ENERGY: Shell (SHEL LN) reported Q1 EPS USD 1.22 (exp. 1.06), adj. EBITDA USD 17.7bln (exp. 15.1bln); announced a USD 3bln buyback, and a 5% dividend hike; said Q2 outlook reflects lower volumes, weaker margins, Middle East conflict impact and higher maintenance. Aker BP (AKRBP NO) Q1 2026 revenue of USD 3bln (exp. 2.93bln), EBITDA USD 2.660bln (exp. 2.58bln); production averaged 398mboepd; backed guidance; noted that Symra achieved first oil nine months early, and Yggdrasil and Valhall PWP-Fenris remain on track for first oil in 2027.
• CONSUMER: Goodyear (GT) Shares fell in extended trading after it highlighted softer demand, volume weakness and cost pressures which outweighed restructuring savings and regional improvements. Flutter Entertainment (FLTR LN) shares rose in extended US trading despite a guidance cut, as higher Q1 revenue, in-line April trading and the early Arkansas launch offset weaker profit, lower monthly players and unfavourable sports results; it also announced leadership changes at Fanduel. Henkel (HEN3 GY) reported Q1 sales +1.7% Y/Y organically; backed FY guidance, sees FY organic sales growth of +1.0-3.0% Y/Y, will pursue acquisitions after it merged its consumer-goods business into one unit.
• INDUSTRIALS: Maersk (MAERSKB DC) Q1 revenue USD 12.97bln (vs 13.32bln Y/Y), EBITDA USD 1.75bln (vs 2.71bln Y/Y), PBT USD 292mln (vs 1.43bln Y/Y); maintained its FY outlook, said the Middle East conflict had limited impact on realised quarterly results. Rheinmetall (RHM GY) reported Q1 sales of EUR 1.94bln (exp. 2.27bln); order backlog +31% Y/Y; expects stronger growth in the next reporting period. BAE Systems (BA/ LN) confirmed 2026 guidance, citing rising defence spending across its main markets; exec added that operational and financial performance in the first four months of the year was strong. AirAsia placed a firm order for 150 Airbus (AIR FP) A220 jets, and took options for 150 larger A220-500 aircraft if Airbus produces them. Poste Italiane (PST IM) Q1 adj. EBIT +14% Y/Y to EUR 905mln (exp. 861mln); raised its FY26 adj. EBIT outlook to EUR 3.4bln (from EUR 3.3bln); said its buyout offer for Telecom Italia was on track.
• COMMUNICATIONS: Telecom Italia (TIT IM) Q1 core profit -2.7%, due to contract transition issues with virtual network operators; Q1 EBITDA after lease was EUR 794mln (exp. 802mln). Separately, Sky is seeking up to EUR 1.9bln in damages from Telecom Italia and DAZN over alleged losses tied to a 2021 Serie A distribution deal, Reuters reports.
• FINANCIALS: Swiss Re (SREN SW) Q1 net profit of USD 1.51bln (exp. 1.19bln), citing lower large natural-catastrophe losses and strong investment performance; insurance revenue declined 4% Y/Y.
• HEALTHCARE: Roche (ROP SW) agreed to buy US-based PathAI for up to USD 1.05bln, including USD 750mln upfront and up to USD 300mln in target-linked payments; the deal will bolster Roche’s diagnostics division’s AI offerings, and build on a partnership with PathAI formed in 2021, exec said. Siemens Healthineers (SHL GY) cut its FY revenue growth outlook to as much as 5% (from up to 6%), blaming Chinese government cost-cutting measures for weaker diagnostics sales; it reported Q2 revenue was EUR 5.7bln, slightly missing expectations. Zealand Pharma (ZEAL DC) Q1 operating loss of DKK 539mln (exp. 672.4mln loss), and it kept its FY26 net operating expenses guidance unchanged at DKK 2.7-3.3bln, launched a DKK 1.3bln buyback, and recognised DKK 4.5bln collaboration revenue in Q2 after petrelintide Phase 3 progression.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: Iran’s response to the US-proposal is expected today, according to CNN (no time has been confirmed). US President Trump to meet with Brazilian President Lula at 11:00EDT/16:00BST. The UK local elections take place today, with Britons set to elect officials to around 5k council seats across the nation, providing a snapshot of the political landscape and the largest test for Labour since the 2024 election.
• DATA: In Europe, Eurozone retail sales are expected to weaken by -0.3% M/M (prev. -0.2%), with the annual rate seen falling to 1% Y/Y (prev. 1.7%); construction PMI readings are due across the bloc. In North America, US initial jobless claims are expected at 205K (prev. 189K), and continuing claims at 1.8mln (prev. 1.785mln); Q1 unit labour costs are seen at 2.6% Q/Q (prev. 4.4% Q/Q) and nonfarm productivity at 0.7% Q/Q (prev. 1.8% Q/Q). Challenger lay-off data are also due. Construction spending is expected +0.3% M/M in March (prev. -0.3% M/M). US consumer credit is seen at USD 12.5bln in March (prev. USD 9.48bln). In EM, Mexico publishes inflation data.
• CENTRAL BANKS: The Riksbank is expected to keep rates at 1.75%. Norges Bank is seen hiking by 25bps to 4.25%. Banxico is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 6.5%. Czech National Bank is expected to hold rates at 3.50%.
• SPEAKERS: ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, and chief economist Lane; BoE’s Lombardelli will give opening remarks and speaks on trade policy; BoE’s Taylor and Mann are also due. Riksbank’s Thedeen will give post-policy meeting remarks. Norges Bank’s Bache will give post post-policy meeting remarks. Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter, hawkish; no text expected, Q&A expected), Kashkari (2026 voter, hawkish; no text expected, Q&A expected), Williams (voter, neutral) are due, and Daly will give a TV interview (2027 voter, dove).
• SUPPLY: Spain sells EUR 5-6bln of 2029, 2036, 2044s, as well as EUR 0.25–0.75bln of 2039 linkers. France sells EUR 11.5–13.5bln 2035, 2042, 2046, 2057 debt.
• ENERGY: EIA natural gas stocks change for 1st May are expected to show a build of 72bcf (prev. 79bcf).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today include: McDonald’s (MCD), Gilead (GILD), Howmet (HWM), McKesson (MCK), MercadoLibre (MELI), Airbnb (ABNB), Monster Beverage (MNST), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Republic Services (RSG), Sempra (SRE), CoreWeave (CRWV), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Vistra (VST), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Coinbase (COIN), Zoetis (ZTS), Datadog (DDOG), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Block (XYZ), Consolidated Edison (ED), Kenvue (KVUE), Expedia (EXPE), Tapestry (TPR), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), News Corporation (NWSA), Akamai (AKAM), Trade Desk (TTD), Wynn (WYNN).