EUROPEAN OPEN: SNB says UBSG SW adequately capitalised; STLAM IM June sales rise 10% Y/Y; CURY LN profit rises, launches buyback; KNDS postpones listings; SW FP raises guidance; BAYN GY consolidates US glyphosate business

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities have opened mixed, following a mixed overnight APAC session, where sentiment towards the tech sector was cautious; APAC semiconductor stocks tumbled after a US tech selloff, on Wednesday’s news that Meta (META) plans to sell excess AI computing power raised oversupply concerns, and Apple’s (AAPL) talks to source memory chips from Chinese manufacturers threatened Korean chipmakers’ pricing power.
• Crude futures are falling for a third day, with Brent below USD 71 a barrel and WTI below USD 68, as Strait of Hormuz flows exceeded 10mln barrels a day and US-Iran talks showed progress. Qatar said positive progress was made on a US-Iran MOU. Elsewhere, Bloomberg notes that key US crude grades have now slumped to trade at a discount, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz increase and demand for American exports fades; sour crude benchmark Mars fell to its lowest level since early 2023, while Houston oil prices weakened to levels not seen since the COVID pandemic.
• USDJPY has recently fallen to just above 161.50 vs highs below 162.50 overnight, without any major headline catalysts; traders remain on alert for potential unannounced Japanese intervention after Japan’s top currency diplomat Mimura refrained from spelling out the Finance Ministry’s standard intervention stance. Traders have also recently noted that the central bank could intervene in holiday-markets (US markets are shut on Friday for Independence Day holidays).
• Gold rose, and trades around USD 4,066/oz as Europe starts, after Fed Chair Warsh’s comments at the ECB forum in Sintra dampened speculation of rate hikes this year, snapping two days of declines. State Street strategists see gold reaching USD 5,000/oz in early 2027, with baseline bullion prices forecast to rally to USD 4,750-5,500/oz over the next 6-9 months; it  cites rising government debt supporting gold's monetary hedge status, resilient physical demand, and global gold fund ownership remaining below its 3-10% portfolio target. Iron ore futures rose overnight before paring gains, after CMRG officials asked mills and traders holding Fortescue’s Super Special Fines to take deliveries before 15th July, after which the material would be blacklisted, Bloomberg said.
• In data releases, Swiss CPI fell to 0.5% Y/Y in June (exp. 0.5%; prev. 0.6%), the first decline since higher energy prices accelerated following the outbreak of the Iran war; monthly prices were flat (exp. 0.1%). Petroleum products rose 15% Y/Y, but eased from May, as did air transport prices. SNB Chairman Schlegel has recently said medium-term inflation pressures remain largely unchanged.
• Chancellor Merz’s coalition has reportedly reached an agreement on reforms covering Germany’s pension system, labour market and income tax; the coalition is considering a mandatory pension contribution of at least EUR 30bln a year into a capital-market fund, modelled on Sweden’s 1990s system. A press conference has been scheduled for 9am local time.
• Ahead today, the focus will be on the US jobs data for June, where 110k nonfarm payrolls are expected (prev. 172k; the BBG whisper number sees 140k), the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.3% (full preview below). Eurozone unemployment figures are also due today. Tesla (TSLA) will report Q2 delivery stats.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• TECH: Apple (AAPL) is reportedly negotiating to buy memory chips from Pentagon-blacklisted ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies for China devices, and CEO Tim Cook has reportedly sought Treasury reassurance over political fallout. Elsewhere, Apple is said to have told suppliers to prepare about 10mln foldable iPhones this year (up from previous estimates between 7-8mln), and plans further models in H1 2027.
• FINANCIALS: The SNB said UBS (UBSG SW) has sufficient capital for proposed rules, citing its USD 9bln Swiss reserves, despite government plans for 100% foreign-operation backing requiring around USD 20bln CET1; separately, UBS will test US banking products and pricing with employee accounts from December, before offering full services to US wealth management clients from mid-2027. Robinhood (HOOD) is rolling out perpetual futures tied to commodities, ETFs and currencies for eligible European customers, including contracts linked to gold, silver, crude oil and the EURUSD rate, with leverage of up to 10x. JPMorgan (JPM) invested over GBP 1bln in Chase UK, and plans further European expansion; Chase has 3mln customers vs Monzo’s 15mln, and GBP 30bln assets near the GBP 35bln cap.
• CONSUMER: Stellantis (STLAM IM) reported total June sales +10% Y/Y; H1 sales reached 634,187 (+5% versus H1 2025). Nissan (NSANY) CEO Ivan Espinosa said the alliance with Renault (RNO FP) is collaborating better than ever, downplaying Renault’s abstention from the vote to reappoint outside director Motoo Nagai, which he attributed to concerns over Nagai’s tenure length. Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report Q2 deliveries of approximately 396,466 vehicles when it publishes figures today, which would represent a +3% Y/Y rise; Tesla’s own company-compiled consensus puts the estimate slightly higher at 406,024 units. Currys (CURY LN) reported an 18% rise in adj. pre-tax profit to around GBP 191mln (exp. 188mln) for 2025/26, citing solid trading and sales growth in UK, Ireland and Nordics; it also announced a new GBP 50mln share buyback programme, and raised its final dividend +100% to 3p/shr. Currys also announced that Nordics CEO Tonneson has been appointed as CEO, effective August 3rd.
• ENERGY: Of note for UK energy costs, the RAC said UK diesel prices saw their biggest monthly drop on record in June, as post-Iran war oil slump unwinds inflationary shock; petrol prices also declined. Shell (SHEL LN) EVP of energy trading David Wells is retiring after four years and will be succeeded by Bob Kijkuit, currently VP of energy trading for Europe and Africa; Kijkuit’s role will in turn be filled by Galp Energia trading chief Rodrigo Vilanova.
• INDUSTRIALS: KNDS has postponed its planned dual listing in Frankfurt and Paris, citing European defence sector volatility; shareholders have been seeking to resume the process when conditions improve, with some investors reportedly dissuaded by share-price swings in peers such as Rheinmetall. The UK CMA launched an investigation into the supply of Solidworks software, Dassault Systemes’ (DSY FP) UK unit. Sodexo (SW FP) raised its FY organic revenue growth forecast to 1.2-1.5% (from 0.5-1.0%) after Q3 revenue rose +2% to EUR 6.17bln (exp. 6.04bln).
• HEALTHCARE: Bayer (BAYN GY) consolidated its US glyphosate business into Ruveon LLC in St. Louis, giving it responsibility for US glyphosate pricing, market strategy, production and logistics; Ruveon remains a Bayer Group business. Novartis (NOVN SW) said the EU approved Itvisma for children aged two and older, teenagers and adults with 5q spinal muscular atrophy linked to bi-allelic SMN1 mutations. Roche (ROP SW) said experimental drug divarasib met primary and key secondary objectives in a head-to-head clinical trial, outperforming existing therapies. AstraZeneca (AZN LN) and Abbisko Therapeutics will study oral PD-L1 inhibitor lumipodlin with TAGRISSO for EGFR-mutated, PD-L1-positive advanced or metastatic NSCLC after China IND clearance on 20th May.
• EX-DIVS: Companies going ex-dividend today include: Next (NXT LN), JD Sports (JD/ LN), Games Workshop (GAW LN).
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Bayer (BAYN GY) upgraded at Deutsche Bank; Repsol (REP SM) upgraded at Santander; Pandora (PNDORA DC) upgraded at UBS.

DAY AHEAD:

• EVENTS: The Germany government will hold press conference (08:00BST/09:00CET), following reports it has reached agreement on pension, labour market and income tax reforms. Tesla (TSLA) is likely to report Q2 delivery figures today, with the consensus looking for 396,466 vehicles, while a Tesla-compiled consensus puts the estimate slightly higher at 406,024 units.
• DATA: Eurozone unemployment rate for May is seen at 6.3% (prev. 6.3%); BoE will release Q2 credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys. In North America, US non-farm payrolls for June are expected to print 110K (prev. 172K), with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.3%; average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and tick up to 3.5% Y/Y (prev. 3.4%) - see below for preview. Weekly initial jobless claims (27/June) are expected to print 220K (prev. 215K) and continuing claims (20/June) at 1,825K (prev. 1,821K). Elsewhere, factory orders for May are due (prev. 4.8% M/M).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) speaks at a Banco de España conference. ECB’s Elderson and Cipollone will give remarks today. BoE’s Mann will participate in a fireside chat (text release expected).
• SUPPLY: France auctions EUR 12.5–14bln across 2036, 2036, 2041 and 2046 lines; Spain auctions EUR 5–6bln across 2031, 2034 and 2036 lines, as well as EUR 0.25–0.75bln of 2036 linkers; UK will sell GBP 3.25bln of 2037 Green Gilts. The US Treasury will announce auction sizes for next week’s 3yr, 10yr, 30yr supply; analysts do not expect any tweaks.
• ENERGY: EIA natural gas storage change due (prev. 76bcf); Baker Hughes weekly rig counts due (prev. oil 440, total 573).
• PREVIEW - US JOBS DATA (13:30BST/08:30EDT): The US jobs data is expected to show 110k nonfarm payrolls being added to the US economy in June, slowing from Mayʼs 172k; the Bloomberg ‘whisper’ number looks for 140k. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, matching the prior rate. Analysts note that May was flattered by local government hiring which is not expected to be repeated, however, the FIFA World Cup could add around 40k temporary jobs to Juneʼs headline. Labour market proxies point to some cooling in the month: weekly claims have edged higher, with analysts suggesting that the trend is consistent with payroll growth slowing below breakeven ahead; S&P Globalʼs PMI data showed employment falling again, while the Conference Board data showed consumersʼ assessment of job availability weakening. For the Fed, the labour market still appears steady enough to keep officials focused on inflation rather than on employment risks, particularly after new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised the 2% inflation target; a firm payrolls print and stable jobless rate would likely support another hold in July.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s full US jobs data preview