EUROPEAN OPEN: SPCX up after results, TSLA merger talks; SMCI surges on raised outlook; ADS GY beat and raise; DB1 GY beat and raise; CA FP cuts outlook on weak French demand; Belgium pressure to sell BNP FP stake; EQT SS advances on QIA GY

• European equities opened mixed, despite a generally positive cue from overnight trading, where APAC stocks mostly gained amid strength in AI names, and as the Nasdaq-100 outperformed, underpinned by upbeat US tech earnings; AI shares rallied after Super Micro Computer projected quarterly sales above expectations, while Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, CoreWeave and Nebius rose; SpaceX also surged following stronger-than-expected quarterly results, and talks on a merger with Tesla. South Korea’s Kospi gained, with AI computing supplier Elice surging 30%, hitting the Kosdaq’s daily limit after slumping 32% on its trading debut this week; shares still remained below its IPO price.
• Brent futures rose amid renewed attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent above USD 110/bbl as Europe starts; API data also showed crude stocks posting a larger-than-expected draw.
• Iran-US talks continue, although reports of an imminent agreement were disputed. Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi said indirect US talks continue via Pakistan and Qatar, with Hormuz reopening conditional on Washington honouring previous commitments. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu is pushing to resume strikes despite Trump’s opposition. Iran warned of renewed war, while the IRGC threatened Hormuz internet cables if Iranian infrastructure is attacked. US envoy Witkoff will meet Russian President Putin today to present an updated Ukraine peace proposal following talks with Ukraine President Zelensky.
• Gold steadied near USD 4,120/oz amid conflicting signals on ending the Iran war, and uncertainty over Fed rates; traders see an 85% probability of another rate hike this year, although a hold is expected at next week’s confab. Nickel rose for a fourth day on prospects of Chinese producers cutting Indonesian output; executives plan talks this week following unsuccessful discussions in August.
• In UK-China trade news, UK Business Secretary Reynolds said Britain is open to discussing tariffs on Chinese EVs with the EU, but will act only in the UK’s interests. The government seeks access to the EU’s Made in Europe procurement scheme ahead of the 20th November summit. China has threatened countermeasures if restrictions are imposed.
• In UK data, UK CPI rose to an 11-month high of 3.5% Y/Y in September (exp. 3.4%; prev. 3.1%), driven by a surge in petrol and diesel costs. Core CPI rose to 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%; prev. 2.6%), while services inflation climbed to 3.7% Y/Y, putting the BOE on track for its first rate hike since 2023 at its 5th November confab.

• INDUSTRIALS: SpaceX (SPCX) shares rose 9.3% in extended trading after a sharp increase in AI revenue drove a swing to profit, while stronger-than-expected Starlink growth and formal merger discussions with Tesla added to the upside. CEO Musk also said SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA) have formed independent special committees to discuss a potential merger, though no terms have been agreed and there is no guarantee of a transaction. Boeing’s (BA) 737 Max 10 received FAA certification following lengthy delays. United Airlines (UAL) shares fell after quarterly earnings missed expectations and Q4 profit guidance came in below consensus, outweighing strong revenue trends across premium, loyalty, cargo and business travel.
• TECH: Nvidia (NVDA) is in talks to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Australian AI cloud provider Firmus Grid following its abandoned IPO, according to The Information. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares surged almost 17% in extended trading after it sharply raised its Q1 outlook on stronger AI platform demand, and also lifted its gross margin guidance. President Trump said new large data centres must generate their own electricity and supply or sell excess power to local communities or the grid; he suggested companies pay communities or residents dividends to secure local support, arguing that such arrangements could reduce electricity prices and help get projects built. Trump also said the Pentagon will invest USD 1.5bln to expand US semiconductor production in North Carolina. China smartphone shipments fell 22.9% Y/Y in September, according to CAICT. Rising memory and component costs pushed device prices higher, weakening consumer demand and extending replacement cycles.
• COMMUNICATIONS: * Netflix (NFLX) shares fell 5.6% in extended trading after it reported its slowest revenue growth in three years, and issued a weaker Q4 outlook, citing slower advertising growth, plateauing viewership and intensifying competition.
• CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Adidas (ADS GY) Q3 operating profit EUR 1.01bln (exp. 767.5mln), sales EUR 7.25bln (exp. 7.11bln); also raised its FY26 operating profit outlook to approximately EUR 2.5bln (prev. saw 2.3bln).
• FINANCIALS: Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GY) Q3 adj. EPS EUR 3.28 (exp. 3.11), revenue EUR 1.63bln (exp. 1.60bln); raised FY26 net revenue view to above EUR 6.5bln (prev. saw above 6.4bln), EBITDA view to around EUR 3.9bln (prev. saw above 3.8bln) and treasury result seen above EUR 800mln (prev. above 700mln). Belgium’s government faces internal pressure to sell its 5.7% stake in BNP Paribas (BNP FP), valued at approximately EUR 5.4bln, according to Bloomberg. A sale is not expected imminently and would likely follow other divestments, including a planned 20% Belfius stake sale by year-end.
• CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: Carrefour (CA FP) Q3 revenue EUR 22.7bln (exp. 22.71bln); lowered FY26 guidance for recurring operating income margin growth to 0-15bps (prev. saw 25bps), adj. EPS to flat/slightly higher (prev. saw high-single-digit growth) and net FCF to slightly lower (prev. saw slight growth), citing weaker French consumption. Cost savings target remains at EUR 1bln; capex seen falling to EUR 1.6bln (prev. 1.7bln).
• MATERIALS: Akzo Nobel (AKZA NA) reported Q3 revenue of EUR 2.54bln (exp. 2.64bln), adj. EBITDA of EUR 388mln (exp. 392.5mln) and adj. operating profit of EUR 297mln (exp. 297mln); sees FY26 adj. EBITDA of around EUR 1.47bln, reflecting an approximately EUR 100mln improvement in constant currencies.
• ENERGY: Of note for Shell (SHEL LN) and Equinor (EQNR), the UK approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field; the Energy Minister said the project could begin supplying gas to British homes and businesses as early as the end of October.
• HEALTHCARE: EQT (EQT SS) is in advanced talks to acquire Qiagen (QIA GY), having submitted a binding offer of over USD 50/shr; rival private equity firm KKR (KKR) has also made a bid. Qiagen, valued at approximately USD 10.2bln, is expected to review potential offers this week, although no deal is guaranteed. EssilorLuxottica (EL FP) Q3 revenue EUR 7.5bln (exp. 7.33bln), with ex-FX growth of 7.2% (exp. 6.3%); DTC sales rose 10.6%, wearables 20% and myopia management 24%; Asia-Pacific grew 15.7%; expects solid revenue growth and broadly aligned adj. operating profit growth over the next five years. GSK’s (GSK LN) Hibsago (bepirovirsen) received FDA Priority Review and Breakthrough Therapy Designation approval for chronic hepatitis B in adults without cirrhosis alongside nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. Alcon (ALC SW) acquired Neurotech Pharmaceuticals for USD 550mln, expanding its retina portfolio with ENCELTO, an FDA-approved treatment for adults with MacTel.

• EVENTS: White House envoy Witkoff will meet Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg to present an updated Ukraine peace proposal following talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
• DATA: In North America, weekly US MBA mortgage applications are due (prev. -2.7%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: BoE Governor Bailey speaks on central bank independence in an era of financial instability; ECB President Lagarde joins an on-stage conversation; ECB chief economist Lane participates on a panel; ECB’s Cipollone will deliver a presentation.
• SUPPLY: US auctions USD 13bln of 20yr bonds.
• ENERGY: EIA weekly energy inventories and crude production data. Afterhours on Tuesday, weekly API inventory data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected draw of -4.9mln bbls (exp. -1.1mln), though Cushing stocks built by +0.9mln; gasoline inventories also saw a larger than expected draw of -2.0mln bbls (exp. -0.7mln), as did distillate stocks at -2.6mln (exp. -1.6mln).
• EARNINGS: Notable corporates reporting today includes: Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), Philip Morris (PM), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM (IBM), Abbott (ABT), NextEra (NEE), Danaher (DHR), AT&T (T), CME (CME), Elevance (ELV), CSX (CSX), Moody’s (MCO), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Rentals (URI), Westinghouse (WAB), Crown Castle (CCI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Packaging of America (PKG), Southwest Airlines (LUV).

This is a full European open wrap rather than a single catalyst, and the read follows the established pattern for such sessions: the overnight AI-complex bid, driven by a raised outlook from a server name and strength across the hardware peer set, has historically been the dominant equity tape driver, with single-stock earnings dispersion doing the rest of the work rather than any index-level macro impulse. The crude leg is the more consequential thread: renewed attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, layered on a larger-than-expected inventory draw, is the classic configuration for a geopolitical risk premium in Brent, and episodes of this kind have tended to persist in price only while physical flows or insurance and freight costs are actually impaired, fading quickly when transit continues unimpeded. The parallel Iran-US negotiating track, with mediation via third parties and contested reports of progress, fits the familiar sequence in which headline-driven crude spikes retrace on diplomatic noise, so the tells are physical: tanker traffic, war-risk premia and any disruption to loadings rather than the rhetoric. On rates, the UK CPI overshoot, with services inflation accelerating, is the sort of print that has historically repriced the front end of the gilt curve and steepened market-implied odds of near-term tightening, though the body text framing of a hike as the base case is unusual for the prevailing cycle and worth treating as the wrap's own characterisation rather than consensus. The corporate tape splits cleanly between beats-and-raises in consumer and exchange operators and a guidance cut from the French grocer on domestic demand, a divergence that echoes prior stretches where French domestic consumption lagged the broader European consumer. The follow-ons are the scheduled US megacap earnings after the European close, the envoy meeting in St Petersburg, and the next official inventory print to confirm or contradict the private survey draw.