Explosion heard in Erbil, Iraq, reports Fars

Attribution matters more than the blast itself: in past episodes of this kind the market read has hinged on whether the strike traces to Iran-aligned militias, in which case it feeds into the wider regional escalation calculus, or to local actors with narrower consequences. That the report originates with Iranian state media is itself notable, since such outlets have previously been early to incidents in which Iran or its proxies are involved, and equally have been used to frame events for domestic audiences. The crude transmission channel runs through risk premium on Middle East supply rather than through Kurdish output directly, which is modest, though past disruptions to the northern export route have shown the region's infrastructure is not immune. The follow-ons that typically determine whether this fades or compounds are confirmation of the target and casualty count, any claim of responsibility, and whether there is a retaliatory response from US or coalition forces stationed in the area. Single strikes of this kind have historically produced brief, shallow risk-off moves that unwind absent escalation.