Explosion heard in Iran's Qeshm island

The established pattern with single-source blast reports out of Iran is an initial risk premium in Brent and freight and insurance quotes, which then fades within hours if the cause proves industrial or accidental, and holds only if attribution points to sabotage or strikes. Episodes of this kind have tended to escalate through a recognisable sequence: official Iranian explanation, any claim of responsibility, then posture shifts by regional actors, with each step either adding or draining the premium. What separates the durable moves from the round trips is corroboration: tanker traffic through the strait, insurance rates, and whether Iranian state media acknowledges damage rather than dismissing the report. The near-term tells are follow-on reporting from regional wire services, any statement from Tehran, and the behaviour of Gulf shipping benchmarks rather than the headline itself.