Explosions heard in Iraq's Erbil, Fars reports

That Fars, an Iranian state-affiliated outlet, is carrying the report rather than local or Kurdish media is itself a tell worth noting: attribution sourcing has historically shaped how quickly these episodes escalate or are walked back. The transmission channel to oil runs through Iraqi crude supply and, more materially, whether the strike proves to be a one-off or part of a broader exchange that draws in Gulf infrastructure or shipping, the latter being what has historically moved crude durably rather than transiently. Past attacks on Erbil with no follow-through have tended to fade within sessions, producing a brief risk premium in crude and haven bids that unwinds absent casualties among US or coalition personnel. The distinguishing variables are casualty counts, claimed attribution, and any US or Iraqi government response, all of which determine whether this prices as a contained incident or the start of a sequence.