Explosions reportedly heard in Erbil, northern Iraq, according to SNN

Erbil has been a recurring target of rocket, drone and missile attacks, with past episodes variously attributed to Iran-aligned militias or, on occasion, claimed strikes by Iran itself, so the first tell is attribution: whether this fits the established pattern of proxy harassment around US-linked facilities or marks direct state involvement, which historically carries a different escalation profile. Prior strikes on the city have tended to produce brief risk-off moves in crude and a firming of regional risk premia, fading quickly when no casualties or infrastructure damage follow, and holding only when the attack hits energy assets or US personnel. The Kurdistan region matters for oil markets through its pipeline export route to the Turkish coast, a flow that has been disrupted before for political rather than security reasons, so any follow-on reporting touching export infrastructure would shift the transmission channel from headline risk to physical supply. Confirmation of origin, casualty reporting, and any response from Baghdad, Washington or Tehran are the sequence to watch, in that order. Single-source reports of explosions have also on past occasions been downgraded or denied, so verification is itself a stage of the story.