Exports of Saudi crude over the past complete seven days average out to nearly 9mln BPD, and that's only from what we can gather from the available satellite imagery, reports Tanker Trackers

Tanker-tracking estimates of this kind are a standing feature of the crude tape, and their precedent value lies less in the level than in what they imply about Saudi behaviour relative to stated supply commitments. Exports and production are not the same thing: barrels can come out of storage, so elevated loadings do not by themselves confirm a breach of output targets, though sustained high export runs have historically preceded questions about adherence. The caveat about satellite coverage matters, since partial observation has on past occasions been revised as more fixtures and destinations clear, and tracking firms of this type routinely restate their numbers. The distinction worth drawing is between a short loading spike, which the market tends to fade, and a pattern across consecutive weeks, which has typically fed into the supply side of the balance and weighed on the front of the Brent and Dubai curves. The follow-ons are Saudi official selling prices, the next set of tracking revisions, and any commentary from Riyadh, which has a track record of disputing third-party export estimates.