Fed Chair Warsh says balance sheet should be as small as possible, and can expand when there's a crisis

• Corporate earnings look to be broadening out.
• If there were a disappointment on what AI could do, much of the AI-related capex investments still have alternative uses.

Trump:

• 'Don't have anything for you' on if he has talked to Trump.
• Would keep head down if Trump tried to influence policy.

Labour Market:

• Labour market is in good shape; not sure if rate cuts are what caused that.

Inflation:

• Monpol has caused inflation.
• Not happy with any measures of inflation.

Task forces:

• Task forces have 6 months; will start getting briefings from task forces as early as September.
• Monetary aggregates are not perfect, but it's a good cross-check.
• If had used them in 2021 might have seen inflation sooner.
• Will take consideration of both Fed mandates when taking on task force recommendations.

Economy:

• Focus is the real economy, and his message to markets is respond to real economy not to what Fed says.