Fed Chair Warsh says decision comes when the economy appears to be strengthening and is pointing in a good direction
Fed Chair Warsh says yet for more than 5 years, inflation has been running above target
Fed Chair Warsh highlights the strength of the US labour market
Fed Chair Warsh says decision comes when the economy appears to be strengthening and is pointing in a good direction
FOMC SUMMARY: Fed hikes as expected in unanimous decision; dot plot sees one more hike this year
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections: Only 18 of 19 members submitted forecasts (expectations were for Warsh to not submit forecasts)
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- Would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee. So removed a dose of accommodation.
The combination here is classic hawkish framing: describing broad financial conditions as not restrictive while withdrawing accommodation is the language officials have historically used when the constraint is the stock of stimulus rather than the level of the policy rate, which places emphasis on the balance sheet and the slope of the curve rather than the front end alone. The claim that the view was widely shared across the committee matters more than the individual voice; on past occasions, dissent-light framing of this sort has carried more signal about the centre of gravity than remarks attributed to a single official, since it is the median voter that sets direction. Tightening into what is described as a strengthening economy is the easier version of the sell, and episodes of that kind have tended to be absorbed with less term premium repricing than tightening delivered against soft data. Worth noting the attribution itself: Warsh is on record historically as a Fed governor with a consistently hawkish record on accommodation, not as chair, so the titling in the headline warrants care. The follow-ons are whether other officials echo the not-restrictive characterisation and how the next round of rate-setters frames financial conditions against the prevailing trend.
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