Fed Governor Waller (Voter) says if he gets another higher reading on inflation, he will treat that as signal, not noise; says it will be a useful signal
Inflation
- If inflation comes down in the next reading, he will need a couple more that way to see that as a signal.
- Thinks credibility is in tact, markets believe Fed will get inflation down to 2%.
- Likes how the Fed has a clear price index for their benchmark.
- Can't have inflation be like porn; you know it when you see it. Thats not how central bankers should think.
- Personally would prefer an inflation range target. Seems reasonable to aim for 1.5-2.5% inflation.
- Sometimes a point estimate is too restrictive in terms of judging success and failure.
Labour market
- BLS is getting more responses later in the payrolls survey cycle.
- Not worried about bigger BLS payrolls revisions.
- Some of the job market uncertainty resolved itself this year, it has been a stunning turnaround.
Forward guidance
- Have been a skeptic of the dots for a long time, would change them in some key ways. Says he would get rid of the long-run estimates, would not go beyond 18 months. Would release the dots a day after the meeting.
- Cannot speak for the commitee but can speak to the median point of the dots.
- Not interested in symbolic rate hikes.
Balance Sheet
- Wish had never bought MBS.
- It is goign to take another decade to get rid of MBS.
Task forces
- Regime change means you do not ask the current regime to run one of the task forces.
- Going to learn a lot from the task forces.
- All are going to have valuable impact.
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