Fed Governor Waller (Voter) says if he gets another higher reading on inflation, he will treat that as signal, not noise; says it will be a useful signal

Newsquawk Staff · 13 Jul 2026, 17:25 UTC

Inflation

If inflation comes down in the next reading, he will need a couple more that way to see that as a signal.
Thinks credibility is in tact, markets believe Fed will get inflation down to 2%.
Likes how the Fed has a clear price index for their benchmark.
Can't have inflation be like porn; you know it when you see it. Thats not how central bankers should think.
Personally would prefer an inflation range target. Seems reasonable to aim for 1.5-2.5% inflation.
Sometimes a point estimate is too restrictive in terms of judging success and failure.

Labour market

BLS is getting more responses later in the payrolls survey cycle.
Not worried about bigger BLS payrolls revisions.
Some of the job market uncertainty resolved itself this year, it has been a stunning turnaround.

Forward guidance

Have been a skeptic of the dots for a long time, would change them in some key ways. Says he would get rid of the long-run estimates, would not go beyond 18 months. Would release the dots a day after the meeting.
Cannot speak for the commitee but can speak to the median point of the dots.
Not interested in symbolic rate hikes.

Balance Sheet

Wish had never bought MBS.
It is goign to take another decade to get rid of MBS.

Task forces

Regime change means you do not ask the current regime to run one of the task forces.
Going to learn a lot from the task forces.
All are going to have valuable impact.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 23 Oct, 10:15 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump says the US crushed Iran, and may want to do it a "little more".
Crude benchmarks firmer on ongoing tensions in the Middle East; recent bout of strength comes after the Houthis launched another missile towards Saudi interests.

Read the whole note Free to read.

Newsquawk Daily

Get the next one free, by email.

What moved overnight, where stocks, bonds, currencies and oil stand, and what’s due today. Written by our analysts.

Both market-open notes, EU and US, every weekday. No account needed. Unsubscribe any time.

If you trade

This headline was on the Newsquawk live feed at 17:05 UTC.

Use the Platform opens our news terminal in your browser, with the live headline feed. It’s news, not a broker.

Use the Platform

Free. No signup, no card.

Case studies

Headlines that moved markets

Headlines from our feed, and what the market did next.

Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance
EUR/SEK+0.3%
Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate
EUR/NOK+0.6%
Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%

See all 183

More on this story

Make Newsquawk a preferred source on GoogleSelect this to see Newsquawk more often in Top Stories when you search Google.