Fed Governor Waller (Voter) says if he gets another higher reading on inflation, he will treat that as signal, not noise; says it will be a useful signal

Inflation

  • If inflation comes down in the next reading, he will need a couple more that way to see that as a signal.
  • Thinks credibility is in tact, markets believe Fed will get inflation down to 2%.
  • Likes how the Fed has a clear price index for their benchmark.
  • Can't have inflation be like porn; you know it when you see it. Thats not how central bankers should think.
  • Personally would prefer an inflation range target. Seems reasonable to aim for 1.5-2.5% inflation.
  • Sometimes a point estimate is too restrictive in terms of judging success and failure. 

Labour market

  • BLS is getting more responses later in the payrolls survey cycle.
  • Not worried about bigger BLS payrolls revisions.
  • Some of the job market uncertainty resolved itself this year, it has been a stunning turnaround.

Forward guidance

  • Have been a skeptic of the dots for a long time, would change them in some key ways. Says he would get rid of the long-run estimates, would not go beyond 18 months. Would release the dots a day after the meeting.
  • Cannot speak for the commitee but can speak to the median point of the dots.
  • Not interested in symbolic rate hikes.

Balance Sheet

  • Wish had never bought MBS.
  • It is goign to take another decade to get rid of MBS.

Task forces

  • Regime change means you do not ask the current regime to run one of the task forces. 
  • Going to learn a lot from the task forces. 
  • All are going to have valuable impact. 
#UNITED STATES#USD#JAPAN#UNITED KINGDOM#GOVERNOR#IMPORTANT#FOREX#FIXED INCOME#EU SESSION#US SESSION#FEDERAL RESERVE#CENTRAL BANK#INFLATION#DXY
Published: Updated: