Fed's Bowman (voter) says persistent inflation and firming labour conditions suggest 'still work to do'

• Financial conditions have tightened and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening.
• Bringing inflation down remains a priority.
• Core PCE likely rose 3.3% in October on energy prices and AI-related demand.
• As shocks unwind, forecasts core PCE to move closer to 2% next year.
• Economic growth gained momentum this year.
• CPI data suggests inflation pressures may persist.
• Labour market has improved; not tight and not adding to inflation.
• Sees risk of large correction to equity valuations.

Remarks of this kind from a sitting voter carry more weight than those from non-voters, and Bowman has historically sat toward the hawkish end of the committee, so her framing tends to mark the boundary of the debate rather than its centre. What matters for the rate path is whether the 'still work to do' language is echoed by officials closer to the median, since it is the consensus voter and not the hawkish tail that sets direction. The note mixes two signals that pull in opposite directions: persistent inflation and a firming labour market argue against easing, while the explicit acknowledgement that financial conditions have tightened and that tightening has costs, plus the warning on equity valuations, is the kind of language that has preceded pauses rather than hikes in past cycles. The case distinction worth drawing is between 'work to do' meaning a longer hold at the current rate and meaning additional tightening; in comparable episodes the former has dominated once a Fed official starts citing tightening costs in the same breath. Her above-target core PCE forecast with a glide back toward target as shocks unwind follows the standard transitory-plus-persistence template that has kept the committee data-dependent. The follow-ons are the next inflation prints against her stated forecast, whether colleagues adopt or disavow the hawkish framing, and any shift in how the equity-correction remark is treated at the next meeting.