Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) says if oil was USD 90/bbl month after month, it would start spilling over to other prices
- Oil futures prices show people think this will be a short-run argument.
- As long as consumer remains strong, economic growth will too.
- Don't be surprised if consumer sentiment sours.
- There is some breakdown of consumer sentiment as an indicator of behaviour.
Context
Goolsbee's remarks on oil prices suggest a concern about potential inflationary spillovers if oil prices remain elevated for an extended period. This underscores that while current economic growth may be resilient, any deterioration in consumer sentiment could shift expectations on inflation and monetary policy, potentially pressuring the Fed's forward guidance and interest rate path.
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