Fed's Goolsbee says hard to get throughline on inflation, how persistent or temporary; inflation going the wrong way, some of that driven by one-and-done; inflation a little more disturbing on services side

Inflation

• Spending now counting on future gains makes me feverous about potential inflationary pressure.
• Seeing some glimmers of hope on services inflation, but it is still well higher than where it needs to be.
• Core inflation still well too high, trending wrong way.
• If core CPI is from services that makes me more nervous than if it's from goods or oil-related items.
• Wages aren't a great leading indicator for inflation; inflation could go up before wages.
• Need to keep watching inflation,
• PCE report wasn't all negative. Saw a little bit of improvement on services.
• Inflation side of mandate is clearly the problem.

Balance sheet

• Balance sheet in emergencies was used as monetary policy, but don't think of it that usually.

Fed

• Have long been uneasy with forward guidance; doesn't hate dot plot.
• Don't want to commit on years-ahead forecasts.
• Fed Chair task force will think through options on dot plot, welcome that.
• Applaud streamlining the Fed statement.