Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) says the baseline outlook is that inflation will take longer to come back down to target

  • Risks that inflation may not converge to the target as we would like.
  • There is a scenario where economy might require a rate increase.
  • If we do not see disinflation in the next couple of quarters, that would concern him.
  • Also a scenario of growth slowdown in H2 this year.
  • Risks tilted more to the inflation side.
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