Fed's Paulson (2026 voter) says her R-Star estimate is close to Fed median of 3.1%; inflation levels are still too high, inflation expectations 'fragile'

Newsquawk StaffFederal Reserve newsPublished 27 Mar 2026, 15:50 UTC

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Fed's Paulson (2026 voter) says her R-Star estimate is close to Fed median of 3.1%; inflation levels are still too high, inflation expectations 'fragile'

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Unclear how much AI is driving higher productivity so far.
Above-target inflation would complicate Fed's response to growth driven by artificial Intelligence
No evidence labor market is driving inflation now
Iran war creates risks for growth and inflation.
Fed has made notable progress bringing inflation down.

Context

Fed's Paulson's assessment suggests that while inflation levels remain high and expectations are fragile, the central bank's view on potential growth driven by AI and geopolitical risks will shape future policy. Her alignment with the Fed's median R-Star estimate implies a cautious stance, indicating policy decisions may focus on balancing growth against persistent inflation risks.

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