Fed's Paulson says useful to consider different scenarios around Iran war; impact of Iran war comes as inflation has been high; there's more risk of faster shift from oil prices into inflation expectations

The comments from Fed's Paulson highlight a cautious stance on the economic outlook, particularly emphasizing the risks of inflation stemming from geopolitical tensions like the Iran war. The mention of a fragile job market suggests an underlying weakness that could influence Fed policy, especially if supply shocks exacerbate inflationary pressures. Overall, while long-run inflation expectations remain anchored, current dynamics could push the Fed to reassess its approach to both rates and economic guidance.